SMM10, 21: today (October 21) Shanghai nickel fell 2%, by the end of the day 21, Shanghai nickel contract 1912 closed at 126390 yuan / ton, during the period fell to 125330 yuan / ton, the lowest since August 28.
On the inventory side, LME nickel inventories rose 1524 tonnes, or 1.8 per cent, to 88104 tonnes today, with the biggest increase since September 23. LME nickel stocks have continued to decline since September 30, falling 40 per cent as of October 14. After entering late October, inventories began to stabilise and recover slightly.
On the spot side, Russian nickel today rose 300 yuan to 400 yuan / ton compared with Shanghai Nickel 1911, while Jinchuan Nickel generally reported 500-600 yuan / ton higher than Shanghai Nickel 1911 contract. Today, after the opening of nickel prices, quickly fell below 60 antenna support, to 128800 near to stop falling consolidation, but the market trading atmosphere is light, because the supply of negotiable goods is tight, it is difficult for traders to replenish warehouses at low prices, and downstream in the falling market, more in the wait and see. Subsequently, nickel prices continued to fall to around 127800 to stop falling fluctuations, for spot trading stimulus is limited, the whole morning market transaction atmosphere is weak. Jinchuan's ex-factory price is 128500 yuan / ton, 2800 yuan / ton lower than last Friday. The mainstream transaction is in the range of 128300 yuan / ton to 128600 yuan / ton. Today Jinchuan Company electrolytic nickel (big board) Shanghai offer 128500 yuan / ton, barreled small pieces 129700 yuan / ton, down 2800 yuan / ton from last Friday.
In the spot stainless steel market, in the morning Foshan stainless steel market, the state-owned 3042B trimming volume price was stable at 16200 yuan / ton compared with last Friday's market price; the private 3042B rough edge roll price was down 16200 yuan / ton today compared with last Friday's average price; today's 304 / NO. 1 five-foot roll price was 50 lower than last Friday's average price at 15150 yuan / ton; 430 cold rolling and trimming volume price was stable at 8150 yuan / ton today. On Monday morning, Foshan cold and hot rolling market quotes have different degrees of decline, some of them sold at low prices, the overall price is expected to be weak this week. For 10:30 SHFE ss2002 contract selling price 14890 yuan / ton, Foshan stainless steel spot water 380-580 yuan / ton (spot edge cutting = rough edge + 170 yuan / ton). This morning Wuxi area quotation: state-owned 304 2B cut edge volume price 16050-16250 yuan / ton, private 304 2B rough edge volume price 15850-15950 yuan / ton. 304 / NO. 1 five feet at 15000-15100 yuan / ton. In the morning, the price of cold and hot rolling in Wuxi market was lower than that of last Friday, the price of cold and hot rolling fell 50 yuan / ton, the transaction was light, the downstream was more wait and see, and the short-term price was weak and stable. For 10:30 SHFE SS2002 contract selling price 14890 yuan / ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot water 780-930 yuan / ton (spot edge cutting = rough edge + 170 yuan / ton).
Market Voice:
Ruida Futures: Shanghai Nickel shock falls short atmosphere continues
October 21 Shanghai nickel main force 1912 shock fell. It is expected that the digestion of the domestic nickel mine supply gap will continue, and at present, the inventory degeneration of nickel mine ports has slowed down. At the same time, the higher nickel price stimulates the willingness of nickel mine suppliers to increase production. Coupled with the rising trend of nickel iron production capacity and import volume in China, to a certain extent, the impact of nickel mine shortage is offset, and nickel prices show a pullback trend. However, at present, the nickel supply gap still exists, and the speed of filling the gap is relatively slow, which partially supports the nickel price. On the spot side, the market trading atmosphere is light, because the supply of negotiable goods is tight, it is difficult for traders to replenish their warehouses at low prices, and downstream in the falling market, most of them are on the sidelines, and then nickel prices continue to probe, and the stimulus for spot trading is limited. Technically, the Shanghai nickel main force 1912 contract daily MACD green column increment, the short-term shock is expected to be weak. In operation, it is suggested that the Shanghai Nickel 1912 contract can be shorted near 127500 yuan / ton with a stop loss of 129000 yuan / ton.
Guoxin Futures: Shanghai Nickel falls again and waits for the callback to stabilize
On Monday, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel weakened sharply. Recently, the resumption of production of overseas nickel mines, sluggish consumption of stainless steel and electric vehicles in the lower reaches, and long exit have made nickel and stainless steel continue to decline. The current price has fallen below the price level before the ban on mining in Indonesia, and there has been an over-fall in technology. In the future, whether from the long-term supply of nickel mines in Indonesia and the Philippines or from the fact that the Philippines has entered the rainy season in the short term, LME nickel stocks are close to a 10-year low. None of the nickel prices have the basis for a further fall. Stainless steel, the recent nickel and iron prices began to rise and the national strike freight overload and other phenomena led to the rise of freight, stainless steel storage cost support, in the current price has lost the state, the future or feedback to the production end ushered in a reduction in production, when the price of stainless steel is expected to rebound. Nickel, stainless steel suggest waiting for this reincarnation after the stable opportunity to do.
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