[SMM data] imports of zinc concentrate fell sharply in June and remained stable in July.

On the 26th of SMM7,

According to the latest customs data, imports of zinc concentrate in June were 188500 tons (physical tons), a decrease of 48300 tons (physical tons) compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 76000 tons (physical tons) compared with the previous month.

 
      
（图一：2018-2019年锌精矿进口量对比）

其中分国别来看，澳大利亚进口6.11万实物吨，占6月锌精矿进口总量的32.42%，位居第一位；俄罗斯联邦进口2.32万实物吨，占6月锌精矿进口总量的12.33%，超越秘鲁位居第二位；巴基斯坦进口1.72万实物吨，占6月锌精矿进口总量的9.15%，位居第三。
 
（图二：2019年6月锌精矿进口来源国占比）

According to SMM, the reasons for the decline in imported zinc concentrate in June compared with the previous month are as follows:

First, the reduction in imports of zinc concentrate in June came mainly from Australia and Peru. Among them, Australia, as the largest importer of zinc concentrate in China, imported more than 33000 physical tons of zinc concentrate in June compared with the previous month, and the total amount of imported zinc concentrate from Peru decreased by more than 40, 000 physical tons compared with the previous month. Under the influence of seasonal factors, the output of some mines in Australia and Peru has been reduced to a certain extent, resulting in a slight decline in the amount of zinc concentrate imported into China.

Second, the zinc concentrate import window continues to close, although the loss degree has a certain narrowing trend, but still affects the zinc concentrate import inflow to a certain extent, if the subsequent import profit window is still not opened, it will further suppress the zinc concentrate import inflow for a long time.

Third, under the condition of the increase of domestic mine discharge, there is a certain degree of substitution for imported zinc concentrate. The amount of mine discharge in high and cold areas in China is gradually increasing, and in previous years, it often reaches a high level from June to August in summer. In the same period, the seasonal output of foreign mines showed a more obvious downward trend, and the amount of imported minerals may decrease as a result. Under the situation of differentiation of zinc concentrate output at home and abroad, the imported zinc concentrate is still losing money, and smelters prefer domestic zinc concentrate under high profit, so the demand for imported zinc concentrate has decreased.

In July, compared with the same period last year, although the domestic ore volume is in the period of increasing volume, but the downward trend of zinc prices, mine profits are gradually eroded, the short-term increment may still be limited. Superimposed foreign zinc concentrate import window has not yet opened, as far as processing fees are concerned, domestic mining and metallurgy negotiations may have a stalemate, if there is no reduction in the short term, the substitution trend of domestic zinc concentrate for imported zinc concentrate may continue, that is to say, the import of zinc concentrate may remain low and stable in July.

In addition, under the domestic squeeze market in June, the import loss narrowed by a larger extent, and some smelters may have locking behavior. It is expected that this part of the mineral volume may flow into China in the short term in the future, and the locking order volume may be relatively limited. However, it may be able to make up for the decrease in the amount of imported minerals brought about by some seasonal factors. Overall, SMM expects imports of zinc concentrate to be around 17-200000 physical tons in July.

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