Macro Roundup (Jul 19)

SHANGHAI, Jul 19 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar extended its losses against the euro, yen and other major currencies as remarks from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams raised bets that the central bank would cut interest rates at month-end. The dollar index slid 0.54% and ended at 96.696. 

Central bankers need to act quickly and forcefully when rates are low and economic growth is slowing, Williams told the annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) on Thursday. “It’s better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold,” he said. 

Base metals traded mostly higher as LME nickel extended its increases by 4%, lead climbed 1.6%, aluminium rose 0.2%, while copper lost 0.3%, zinc and tin slid 0.6%. SHFE nickel increased 3.2%, lead went up 0.5%, aluminum climbed 0.25%, copper grew 0.24%, while tin fell 0.2%, and zinc dipped 0.4%. 

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, reflecting  strong labour market conditions despite signs of slowing economic activity.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended July 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The rise was in line with economists’ expectations. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. 

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, dipped 250 to 218,750 in the week to July 13.

The claims data tends to be volatile around this time of the year due to summer factory closures, especially in the automobile industry, which occurs at different periods. 

While the US labour market remains strong, there are concerns that a shortage of workers and the Trump administration’s tougher stance on immigration could hinder job growth.

Day ahead

The US will release data on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July, and the weekly changes in the number of oil rigs. 

Today, St Louis Fed President James Bullard will participate in the CEBRA 2019 annual meeting and deliver a speech about the role of techonology in finance.