[SMM analysis] Lunxi inventory rose sharply in two days to 16 years high tin price trend will follow how to judge?

SMM6, 19 March: since the beginning of this week, Lunxi has experienced two falls and one rise, falling continuously in intraday trading on Monday, falling below all averages in one fell swoop, and rebounding on Tuesday afternoon to climb back to the 5th, 10th and 20th EMA. On Wednesday, Lunxi continued to decline, to $19075 / ton by about 15:00, down 0.7 per cent on the same day. Shanghai tin, after rising to 144990 yuan / ton during the day, fell all the way to close at 144050, up nearly 0.1 per cent during the day.

According to LME data, on June 17 and 18, Lunxi inventories soared by 30.01% and 28.4% respectively, reaching 6035 tons by the 18th.

Inventory status of Lunxi from 2018 to the present:

In terms of domestic inventories, data as of June 14 showed that the tin bank in the previous period had fallen for nearly a month and rebounded, rising to 8126 tons on the 14th.

The inventory situation of the previous Institute since the beginning of this year:

According to SMM analysis, in this round, due to Singapore's increase of more than 1000 tons for two days in a row, the current inventory of Lunxi has reached 6035 tons, the second highest in nearly 16 years, resulting in a downward trend in the European market from Monday to Tuesday. However, due to the favorable news side of President Xi Jinping's appointment with US President Trang on the 18th, LME basic metals generally rose, and the trend of Lunxi rose. The end of the previous period due to a sharp increase in inventories caused by the decline.

The interest rate resolution to be announced in the US this week is widely expected to remain stable, coupled with the fact that China and the United States were scheduled to meet at the G20 summit yesterday, the market has paid more attention to the outcome of the G20 summit, and the dollar index is expected to remain strong in the short term. If the dollar index remains strong, coupled with the fact that Lensi inventories remain at their second highest level in nearly 16 years, the trend is expected to come under pressure, with support at around $18500 per tonne below the previous platform. if it falls below, the next support is near the previous low of $18150 / tonne, and the upper resistance is near the 40-day moving average of $19400 / tonne.

On the domestic side, due to the impact of Lunxi price fluctuations and macro good news, as of Wednesday, Shanghai tin overall suppressed and then rose, the market multi-empty forces intertwined, the lower support of Shanghai tin is expected to be located in the early platform of 143000 yuan / ton, the upper resistance is located in the 40-day moving average of 145500 yuan / ton.

Spot, Tuesday Shanghai tin spot prices down, downstream enterprises a small amount of replenishment, today's morning market due to the higher surface price, some sets of a small amount of replenishment, the spot market transaction atmosphere is generally general. In terms of discount, the range of stickers has been narrowed slightly. Today, Yunxi Shishui 100 yuan / ton-flat water, ordinary Yunzi sticker 400 yuan 600 yuan / ton, small brand discount 1000 to 1100 yuan / ton.

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