Current weekly review (11 May)
Play back the current market this week.
1. The elements of this week's multi-empty games are brilliant, including, but not limited to,
(1) the United States has shamelessly bullied Iran and once again lifted the fig leaf of the so-called "freedom and democracy" universal values and went to war naked!
(2) domineering and wild that the United States played the ultimate evil tricks, the Sino-US trade negotiations suddenly hit the rocks; the US tariff was raised to 25%, and the Chinese side made the corresponding bright sword; the marathon negotiations between the two sides are under way. No, no.
(3) suspension of the operation plan of the original Vale mine.
(4) the difference between M2 and M1 scissors in macro financial statistics is larger than that in March, and the market triggers concern about liquidity.
(5) the NDRC issued a notice on how to do a good job in resolving excess capacity in key areas in 2019.
(6) Yang Ma implemented a lower reserve requirement ratio for small and medium-sized banks to help small and medium-sized enterprises.
(7) the production restriction in Tangshan area is copied again, and as a result, it drizzles a little bit.
(8) the second round of price increase of coke basically landed on the ground.
(9) the output of RB continued to expand.
(10) the demand is lingering and converging gently.
(11) the inflection point of inventory is looming.
(12) under the condition of high discount, the resistance of steel falls.
2. Spot: the author forward-looking forecast, the rebound range of 500 + 50 (about 500 yuan in East China), the time dimension of 75 days have arrived as scheduled, the perfect end; Short rhythm forecast before the festival is easy to rise and difficult to fall, after the festival wayward pull up, save back light, and then the decline is also as expected.
3. Futures: steel more empty point, the food is tasteless, optimistic iron ore, coke, coking coal (narrow range fluctuations, wait-and-see is appropriate) of the forecast have been verified by the disk!
RB1910 contract:
Autumn flowers pale autumn grass yellow, Geng autumn lights autumn night long!
It fluctuated between 3814 and 3705 during the week, with a weekly income of 3746 (3777 before the festival).
HC1910 contract:
The towel asks the flower does not speak, the random red flies over the swing!
It fluctuated between 3777 and 3633 during the week, with a weekly income of 3682 (3714 before the festival).
Iron ore l1909 contract:
622.5 come suddenly and not be surprised, but I am brave 661.5.
During the week, the concussion rose from 622.5 to 661.5, with a weekly income of 655.5 (before the festival).
Demon Jiao J1909 contract:
Wailing the six armies are all vegetarian, and it is beautiful to rush to the crown and become angry.
Run between 2017.5 and 2174 during the week, with a weekly income of 2167 (2047 before the festival).
Coking coal JM1909 contract:
Sycamore tree, three more rain!
It fluctuated between 1382 and 1346 during the week, with a weekly income of 1362 (1354.5 before the festival).
Next week's current forecast.
1. Spot: shock down.
2. Futures:
RB1910 contract: between 3670 and 3820.
HC1910 contract: between 3610 and 3770.
Iron ore L1909 contract: between 635 and 680.
Demon Jiao J1909 contract: between 2100 and 2180 concussion.
Coking coal JM1909 contract: between 1340 and 1380.
< 3 > suggestions for current operation.
1. Spot: inventory pressure, continue to reduce inventory; inventory no pressure, in less than rolling operation, conditional short every high.
2. Futures:
The end of the wood: the operation of partial emptiness in the interval is appropriate.
Iron ore: long thinking, within the range of high throwing low absorption is appropriate.
Coke: within the range, every along the value near the empty cloth, every down along the value near the cloth, fast-in and fast-out is appropriate.
Coking coal: wait and see or empty near the value.
The words of the heart.
1. A brief description of the relationship between supply and demand.
Supply side:
Environmental protection and production restrictions still have a positive but limited impact on some areas: although Tangshan environmental protection production restrictions are copied into a hustle and bustle, the actual situation is only converged to a certain extent, as the author said, under a little drizzle. How will it evolve in the future? Taking into account the current actual situation at home and abroad, I do not know, the probability is still drizzling, this week the decline of the factory warehouse is also side evidence. However, from the overall point of view, the supply side temperature and expansion is indisputable, and is positively related to the time dimension.
Demand side:
The marginal contribution of infrastructure to demand is also positively correlated with the time dimension; the real estate demand is less than March and April is a high probability event, but the toughness is still good, 17 days to be verified; the transformation of shantytowns is not as accurate as last year. The rainy season of southern plum in May should not be ignored.
Anyway. The supply side slightly expands, the demand converges slightly, one is positive and the other is negative, and the balance between supply and demand is about to transition to a state in which supply is slightly greater than demand.
2. Regional price differentiation highlights the main factors:
One of the factors. Infrastructure projects and shantytowns reconstruction differences, such as Fujian Province shantytowns transformation like fire in progress.
Factor two. The regional concentration of steel is different, such as Fujian is mainly building materials.
Factor three. The environmental protection limits the production disturbance area and only hears the thunder sound but does not have the rain region difference.
3. Iron ore. The NDRC's voice is certainly gratifying to the Chinese people, but the author cannot help but ask what efforts can be made by the high-quality mines in China. How long has it been since the Australian melon was imported? Too much? Please explain.
4. Although the second round of coke price increases fall to the ground, but the third round of price increases can be met to open? The author is worried, Because, including, but not limited to, the convergence of expected profits of steel enterprises, and the gap between words and deeds of Shanxi environmental protection production restrictions (the author's forward-looking prediction of environmental protection production restrictions is a high probability event), The technological progress of coke enterprises has greatly shortened the time to produce focus and the unity of policy opposition (unknown).
5. The process and results of Sino-US trade friction so far, the author's point of view has not been falsified. The road is slowly building a long way. The impact on spot is limited.
6. Get to know each other again.
RB1910/HC1910 contract, walking chicken rib market: from an organization's financial advantages, high discount, strong cost support and technical gap has not been made up, Sino-US trade negotiations hit the rocks, spot follow-up is not optimistic.
The author's point of view remains unchanged and will not be repeated.
The trend analysis and views remain unchanged, as detailed in the outlook for the steel market on April 27.
Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781
(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)
