Macro Roundup (Jun 29)

SHANGHAI, Jun 29 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index dipped and closed at 95.3 overnight as the country’s economic growth in the first quarter was slower than previously estimated.

During January-March, the US gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2% year on year, slower than the estimated 2.2%. Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of its economic activity, stood at 0.9% during the period, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2013.

Base metals, except for LME zinc, fell across the board overnight on growing worries over global trade wars. LME copper dropped over 1% and touched a three-month low. LME lead lost over 1%, aluminium, nickel and tin dipped.

The eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 112.3 points in June from 112.5 in May but remained above the expected 112. The industrial confidence index held steady at 6.9, while it was forecast to drop to 6.4. The consumer sentiment index came in line with expectations and matched the flash estimate at -0.5.

Germany consumer price index (CPI) was expected to rise 2.1% year on year in June, slightly down from May's 2.2%.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but the trend in claims remained consistent with a tightening labour market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 227,000 for the week ended June 23. Filings had dropped for four straight weeks prior to the latest data.

The four-week moving average of initial claims edged up 1,000 to 222,000 last week.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 21,000 to 1.71 million in the week ended June 16. The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims dropped 3,750 to 1.72 million, the lowest level since December 1973.

The labour market is viewed as being near or at full employment, with the jobless rate at an 18-year low of 3.8%.

Day ahead

Key factors to watch today include Germany’s unemployment rate in June, eurozone’s CPI in June, US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and personal spending in May as well as consumer confidence in June surveyed by the University of Michigan.