China Alumina Output Jumps in August, Despite Ore Shortage, SMM Reports

[Geopolitical easing combined with manufacturing slowdown exert dual suppression, SHFE and LME aluminum prices plunge significantly] SMM maintains its forecast that inventory will drop to around 1.28 million mt by late June, and may further approach 1.2 million mt by the end of June or early July, providing some support for aluminum prices. However, the pressure from high domestic inventory remains relatively evident, and coupled with the currently dominant bearish macro sentiment in the market, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly be in the doldrums with adjustments in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] According to multiple media reports, following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, prices in the international energy and metals markets fluctuated significantly. WTI crude oil futures fell by over 5%, while European natural gas prices plunged more than 10%. In the metals market, LME aluminum prices declined during the evening session, dropping over 5% to $3,357/mt. China's most-traded SHFE aluminum contract was also affected, with open interest rising by over 14,000 lots and the price falling by as much as 2% to 23,730 yuan/mt. Market concerns now center on persistently high operating aluminum capacity in China, while new and resumed aluminum capacity outside China will also put pressure on LME aluminum prices.