SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jul. 10, 2017)

Chinese customs inspections on imported recycled copper raw materials have continued to tighten, leaving a growing volume of non-compliant copper scrap held up at ports. According to SMM market checks, nearly 10,000 tonnes of copper scrap are currently waiting in Hong Kong for entry into Guangdong. Longer customs clearance times are increasing inventory and working-capital pressure on some traders. The affected cargoes are mainly No.2 copper originating from Latin America and Southern Europe. With customs inspections remaining stringent, disruptions to scrap inflows are reducing the effective availability of imported copper scrap in the Chinese market and adding to near-term supply tightness.

China's copper scrap pricing coefficients moved broadly higher this week, supported by tight invoice availability, elevated refined copper spot premiums and disruptions to overseas scrap imports. Tight domestic feedstock availability has prompted Chinese buyers to raise bids. Millberry is currently quoted at around 98.5%–99.5% of LME copper, No.1 copper at 97.5%–98.5%, and No.2 copper at around 96.5%, while some No.2 material containing gold and silver can reach around 98%. Higher Chinese bids are increasingly feeding through to overseas markets, strengthening sellers' pricing expectations and pushing up copper scrap coefficients in several regions. With China's invoice constraints yet to ease materially and imported scrap availability remaining tight, copper scrap pricing coefficients are expected to remain well supported in the near term.

[SMM Kilat Batang Kuningan] Menatap pekan depan (10.2-10.8), pekerja di perusahaan sampel billet tembaga SMM umumnya akan libur selama 4-5 hari, dengan durasi libur rata-rata pada dasarnya datar YoY, naik tipis 0,08 hari. SMM memperkirakan tingkat operasi perusahaan sampel billet kuningan akan kembali turun ke 34,51%, turun 3,39 poin persentase MoM. Dengan harga tembaga yang tetap tinggi, perusahaan bersikap hati-hati, dan SMM memperkirakan permintaan pada bulan Oktober hanya akan menunjukkan sedikit perbaikan.