Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-6-8)

SHANGHAI, Jun. 8 (SMM) – The number of US initial jobless claims last week, import and export data in May and seasonally adjusted GDP in Q1 will be released today. UK’s presidential election result and European Central Bank’s statement about interest rate decision will also be eyed. The market will see limited fluctuation except for the significant unforeseen. Base metals were mixed overnight, and mostly dropped. Base metals may weaken further today.

As to China’s official PMI in May, import index declined, new order index held flat and export orders rose 0.1%. With regard to Caixin’s manufacturing PMI in May, output index and new order index fell to the lowest from last June. This, combined with continuous decline in commodity prices, presage slower growth in China’s imports in May. Slide in South Korea’s exports in May also reflected weakening demand worldwide.

As European economy continues recovering, the market guess whether the ECB will shed some light that it may end bond purchase plan. But it was reported overnight the bank may raise forecast for eurozone growth slightly, but lower inflation forecast, which caused big volatility in foreign exchange market. If the ECB’s statement is different, the foreign exchange market will be affected.

Uncertainty over UK’s presidential election increased. The market will keep an eye on this issue. If Theresa Mary May fails to win the election, the progress of the Brexit will be affected.

Former FBI director general may disclose the progress of investigations about Russia’s intervention in US presidential election today. This may greatly impact the US dollar.