Macroeconomic Factors for Big Leap in Base Metals October 25, SMM Reports

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded social inventory in the Shanghai region at 70,800 mt, down 12,300 mt WoW from last Thursday; social inventory in the Jiangsu region at 16,300 mt, down 4,100 mt WoW from last Thursday. Inventory in the two regions in east China totaled a reduction of 16,400 mt, with destocking exceeding market expectations. Supply side, due to the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, port arrivals of ex-China cargoes have decreased, and combined with some shipping schedule delays, imported copper has provided relatively limited supplementation to the spot market. Demand side, after copper prices experienced a slight correction last week, downstream dip-buying demand was released. Meanwhile, the backwardation spread between consecutive months once widened, enhancing suppliers' willingness to sell and accelerating market cargo turnover, jointly driving a significant inventory decline. Intraday buying sentiment rebounded to some extent, but quotes for standard-quality copper still required successive downward adjustments before transactions could occur, reflecting that downstream buyers' acceptance of high premiums remains limited. Overall, against the backdrop of significant destocking in east China inventory and low imported arrivals supporting premiums, while downstream buyers mainly engage in dip-buying and just-in-time procurement and suppliers' willingness to sell persists, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract are expected to maintain premiums tomorrow, with the overall center likely to gradually stop falling and stabilize. The room for further significant declines is relatively limited.

[SMM Flash News Stok Sosial Tembaga] Per 24 Agustus, stok sosial katoda tembaga SMM di wilayah utama nasional turun 19.700 mt secara WoW menjadi 114.200 mt, turun 8.800 mt secara YoY. Minggu lalu, harga tembaga mengalmi koreksi, dan permintan hilir yang seblumnya tertahan mulai terlepas, secara signifikan mendorong penarikangudang pasar. Hal ini menjadi pendorong utama penurunan stok sosial katoda tembaga nasonal yang tidak terduga.