In April, the rare earth market, especially the oxide segment, generally showed a trend of rising prices and declining volumes. Specifically, Pr-Nd oxide saw a price increase of 7.07% in April, while dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide both edged up in April. However, due to supply disruptions in the recycling segment, rare earth oxide production all contracted MoM in April. On the foreign trade front, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that rare earth import and export figures in the first four months both grew YoY. Since the beginning of May, downstream demand has shown no improvement, market inquiry activity has been low, and prices of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide have generally trended downward. Currently, the tight rare earth supply situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, and whether downstream demand can recover and whether foreign trade exports can continue to shine will influence the direction of the rare earth market going forward.
Pr-Nd oxide rose 7.07% in April; dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide edged up slightly in April
Light rare earth prices:Taking the historical price trend of Pr-Nd oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on April 30 was 772,500 yuan/mt, compared with 721,500 yuan/mt on March 31, representing an increase of 51,000 yuan/mt in April, with a monthly gain of 7.07%. Entering May, Pr-Nd oxide was generally in a pullback trend, and on May 8, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 757,500 yuan/mt.
Medium-heavy rare earth prices:Taking the trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of dysprosium oxide on April 30 was 1,375 yuan/kg, compared with 1,365 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 10 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.73%. Entering May, dysprosium oxide prices pulled back, with the average price on May 8 at 1,340 yuan/kg.
Taking the trend of terbium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of terbium oxide on April 30 was 6,125 yuan/kg, compared with 6,080 yuan/kg on March 31, representing an increase of 45 yuan/kg in April, with a monthly gain of 0.74%. Entering May, terbium oxide prices declined, and as of May 8, the average price edged down slightly to 6,110 yuan/kg.
Pr-Nd oxide and medium-heavy rare earth production both declined MoM in April
Production:
Pr-Nd oxide: Pr-Nd oxide production contracted MoM in April. Affected by the dual factors of equipment maintenance and insufficient raw material inventory, recycled Pr-Nd oxide output saw a notable contraction. Meanwhile, some raw ore separation enterprises also experienced production shutdowns, further exacerbating the tightening on the supply side. Both raw ore and recycled segments contracted simultaneously, leading to a notable MoM decline in Pr-Nd oxide supply in April.
Medium-heavy rare earth oxides:Medium-heavy rare earth production also edged down slightly MoM in April. Among them, ion-adsorption ore separation enterprises maintained relatively stable overall operations, with no significant fluctuations in production pace. However, production cuts at scrap recycling enterprises weighed on the overall output level of medium-heavy rare earth oxides. As scrap recycling accounts for a certain share of the medium-heavy rare earth supply system, production cuts in this segment affected the total monthly output, resulting in a slight MoM decline in medium-heavy rare earth oxide production.
Imports and exports:
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 5,308.6 mt of rare earths in April, up 10.9% YoY; cumulative rare earth exports during January-April reached 19,887.6 mt, up 4.9% YoY. China imported 8,780.7 mt of rare earths in April, down 30.44% YoY; cumulative rare earth imports during January-April amounted to 40,857.8 mt, up 9.5% YoY.
Outlook
Regarding the outlook for rare earths, supply side, oxide production contracted in April, and the short-term tight supply situation has not eased, with the supply end still providing certain support to rare earth prices. Demand side, before any notable improvement in downstream demand, weak demand is expected to continue suppressing rare earth market performance. However, based on customs export data, the 10.9% growth in rare earth exports in April provided certain external demand support to rare earth prices. If rare earth export data continues to grow in May, it is expected to further boost market confidence. In addition, China and the US are currently in communication regarding Trump's planned visit to China in mid-May. If this head-of-state meeting proceeds smoothly, the two sides may exchange views on issues such as economy and trade and the stability of critical minerals supply chains. Considering US concerns over rare earth supply chain security, if the relevant communication achieves pragmatic progress, it may bring marginal improvement expectations to the rare earth export environment. However, its impact still needs to be cautiously assessed in light of the actual outcomes of the meeting and subsequent policy developments. Overall, the short-term rare earth market will continue to seek direction amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the upstream and downstream segments, while changes in external demand and progress in China-US economic and trade communications warrant continued attention.
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