Multiple Macro Factors Drove Futures Higher, Spot Market Fell into Stalemate with Scarce Transactions [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Review, May 7, 2026

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract pulled back during the early session, but driven by the strong performance in last night's night session, SHFE overall maintained an upward trend, closing at 417,670 yuan/mt in the morning, up 12,800 yuan/mt, a gain of 3.16%. LME moved similarly to SHFE, with LME three-month tin temporarily quoted at $53,400/mt, down 1.71%.

On the macro front: (1) US ADP employment data for April recorded 109,000 new jobs, slightly above the expected 99,000, while the previous reading was revised down from 62,000 to 61,000; (2) Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations proposed a feasible plan to resolve the Strait of Hormuz issue: permanently ending the war, lifting the maritime blockade, and restoring normal passage.

Macro sentiment perspective, the concentrated return of capital after the holiday provided a boost to the market. Meanwhile, ex-China tech stocks held up well, lifting long-term expectations for metals related to technology applications, and overall market sentiment turned positive. Combined with the new communication proposal put forward by geopolitical parties, multiple macro factors intertwined to keep futures sentiment on the stronger side.

 Spot market, when futures prices previously moved near 390,000 yuan/mt, spot market activity had already turned mediocre. After the holiday, the SHFE tin center rose further and broke through 400,000 yuan/mt, and the elevated absolute prices clearly suppressed spot transactions. This morning, most downstream end-user enterprises remained on the sidelines, primarily consuming existing in-house materials. Purchase willingness in the market was weak, with only sporadic single-digit rigid-demand transactions heard.

Overall, the recent strength in tin prices was mainly driven by the combined effects of post-holiday market re-engagement and recovering sentiment in ex-China tech sectors. On the macro front, new communication proposals emerged from the geopolitical situation, and capital positioning continued. However, on the fundamentals side, negative feedback from the spot market against high prices became increasingly prominent, the wait-and-see stance of downstream participants was difficult to reverse in the near term, and the spot side lacked actual buying support for price rises. Tin prices are expected to maintain wild swings within the current elevated range in the near term, with attention needed on subsequent capital flows and actual spot market absorption.