Geopolitical Stalemate Stabilized Tin Prices in Fluctuation, While Spot Market Trading Turned Subdued [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

Apr 2026 Tin Midday Commentary

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2605) stopped falling and stabilized near 366,000 yuan/mt, maintaining a fluctuating trend. It closed at 366,250 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 0.63. On the LME side, the London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed today for the Easter holiday.

At present, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has entered a period of stalemate. Based on developments over the past two days, there has been no substantive breakthrough in diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran, and differences in negotiations remained evident. Meanwhile, as a previously set key period approached, both sides maintained a degree of restraint in military operations, and there were still no clear signals of either further escalation or significant easing in the conflict. As a result, uncertainty on the macro front left capital trading logic without a clear main line, and market sentiment shifted from earlier front-running of expectations to cautious wait-and-see, pending further clarity in the situation.

The spot market was generally mediocre today. During yesterday's decline in futures, some downstream enterprises had already carried out moderate restocking for rigid demand at lower prices. As futures prices stopped falling and stabilized, downstream purchase willingness cooled accordingly, and most enterprises in the market returned to a wait-and-see stance. Suppliers maintained steady offer sentiment, with no obvious willingness to sell at concessions amid destocking, while spot premiums were quoted largely stable overall.

Overall, the current market is facing a tug-of-war between macro-level pressure from uncertainty and fundamental support from low inventory and bargain-hunting buying. In the short term, futures are still expected to be constrained by disruptions from Middle East geopolitical developments and fluctuations in the US dollar index. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to the direction of crude oil prices, the actual progress of diplomatic negotiations outside China, and the sustainability of rigid-demand restocking on the spot side after prices pull back.