Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,931.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead trading was sluggish and largely consolidated between $1,925/mt and $1,930/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead gradually fluctuated downward. Coupled with renewed turbulence in Middle East geopolitical tensions, the decline in LME lead widened and once fell below the 5-day and 20-day moving averages. By the night session, supported by the strength of SHFE lead, LME lead recovered most of its losses and finally closed at $1,934.5/mt, down 0.23. In addition, due to Good Friday, LME lead was closed today.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,680 yuan/mt. With China’s lead ingot destocking coexisting with expectations of off-season consumption, longs and shorts remained locked in a tug-of-war during the session, and SHFE lead fluctuated between 16,700-16,760 yuan/mt for an extended period before finally closing at 16,750 yuan/mt, up 0.21; its open interest fell to 56,412 lots, down 554 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
US President Trump claimed on his own that he had achieved an “overwhelming victory” in the war against Iran and would launch extremely fierce strikes in the next two to three weeks. Iran and Oman drafted an agreement for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran warned that it would leave no survivors if anyone dared launch a ground war. Iran said it had hit advanced enemy fighter jets, which the US denied, while Trump released a video of a bridge bombing to apply pressure. Iran said the US and Israel knew nothing about Iran’s capabilities and that it would fight until the enemy surrendered. Technology infrastructure has become a “new battlefield,” and Iran again attacked Amazon’s Middle East data center.
:
Yesterday, in the spot lead market, SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Suppliers shipped in line with market conditions, while transactions for cargoes self-picked up from production site from primary lead smelters quoted at premiums were difficult. Mainstream producing areas maintained ex-works quotations at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, while a small number of regions quoted premiums of 100 yuan/mt. As for secondary lead, with lead prices rising, losses on secondary lead were repaired, and smelters were mostly active in making shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted ex-works at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. As the Qingming Festival approached, some downstream enterprises planned to take a holiday. Coupled with elevated lead prices, downstream enterprises were relatively cautious in procurement, and spot market transactions were sluggish.
Inventory: As of April 2, LME lead inventory fell by 50 mt from the previous day to 281,650 mt; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory stood at 50,141 mt, down 1,103 mt from the previous trading day; this week, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued to decline, but the pace of decline narrowed significantly.
Today’s Lead Price Forecast:
By Friday, with some European and US markets closed for Good Friday and China also approaching the Qingming Festival holiday, SHFE lead did not conduct night session trading on Friday, and market trading activity declined. China's social warehouses for lead ingots continued to decline, while in April, primary lead smelters saw both maintenance and resumptions, including in Yunnan, Henan, and other regions. In addition, increased output from secondary lead enterprises in relatively northern regions made overall supply relatively ample. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market is approaching the traditional off-season, with limited expectations for lead consumption, and some downstream enterprises plan to take holidays during the Qingming Festival holiday, resulting in a temporary absence of consumption. The risk of an inventory buildup in social inventory of lead ingots after the holiday is rising, constraining the pace of lead price increases.
Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.
