Macro sentiment cools down and spot cargo consolidates in parallel, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to run in the doldrums [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On February 10, the most-traded SHFE tin contract maintained a fluctuating trend, closing at 382,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up 3.33%. On the LME, the three-month tin contract also consolidated, currently quoted at $48,985/mt, down 1.67%.

The recent retreat in tin prices from highs was driven not only by overheated market sentiment and accumulated technical adjustment pressure after the previous sustained rally, but also by dual expectation revisions at both the macro and industry levels. On one hand, the nomination of the Fed Chairman became a direct trigger for a shift in liquidity expectations, with rising expectations for a stronger US dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated nonferrous metals as a whole. On the other hand, short-term expectations for the development of the artificial intelligence industry have loosened. Previously, some AI-related enterprises reported investment returns below expectations, sparking concerns about an "AI bubble," with adjustment sentiment in related tech sectors spreading to upstream raw material markets. Tin, as a key material in semiconductor solder and advanced packaging, has its demand narrative closely tied to the AI industry, making the sentiment transmission particularly significant. These two factors combined have accelerated the pace and magnitude of the decline.

In the spot market, as the Chinese New Year approaches, logistics have largely stalled, and various segments of the industry chain have generally entered the holiday period. Among downstream producers, some had already taken early holidays during the high-price phase, while others completed phased restocking during the previous significant price pullback, resulting in low current purchase willingness. Spot transactions are sluggish, and the market continues to maintain high premium quotes due to limited spot circulation, but actual orders are scarce, presenting a typical "price without market" situation. Against this backdrop, the market overall shows a trend of fluctuating with thin volume. Pre-holiday, the market has gradually entered a consolidation phase, and price fluctuations may narrow. Close attention should be paid to overseas macro policy developments, geopolitical changes during the holiday, and the pace of downstream resumption after the holiday.