Fundamentals Improvement Fails to Support Prices, Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate at Lows [SMM Brief Review]

Iron ore futures fluctuated during the morning session today, rising first then falling in the afternoon. The most-traded contract I2605 finally settled at 761.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot prices increased by 2-8 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate enthusiasm in offering prices, while steel mills mainly purchased based on rigid demand, with limited inquiries. Overall market trading activity was moderate.

Looking ahead, this week's hot metal production affected by maintenance fell by 169,100 mt WoW, driving the daily average hot metal output to stabilize and rebound, indicating a substantial improvement in the rigid demand for iron ore. However, the market still faces inventory pressure, as both port visible inventory and steel mill in-factory inventory remain at high levels. Ample inventory levels effectively buffer raw material procurement demand, causing a noticeable lag in the transmission of incremental rigid demand to the spot market. Considering these factors, against the backdrop of unresolved inventory pressure and relatively slow demand release pace, iron ore prices are expected to struggle with forming a unilateral breakthrough in the short term and are likely to continue fluctuating at lows.