[SMM Analysis] Low Inventory Supports Market; Manganese Sulfate Prices Stable, Early September Orders Await Validation

The domestic battery-grade manganese sulfate market maintained stable pricing this week, with spot prices oscillating within a range. Neither upward nor downward movements have found strong driving forces. Compared with seasonal patterns in previous years, downstream precursor plants had already initiated partial advance stockpiling by late August last year, which drove a recovery in spot transactions. In 2026, however, the peak-season rhythm has clearly been delayed, with weak release of end-user rigid demand. Participants across the industrial chain hold divergent views on when the peak season will actually commence, and the market is broadly waiting for validation signals from orders in early September.

On the supply side, supply tightness caused by earlier flood disruptions in the Guangxi producing region has fully subsided. Production across all major domestic producing areas has returned to normal levels, and overall industry supply is relatively loose, with theoretically sufficient spot availability. However, unlike previous high-inventory environments, inventories across both upstream and downstream segments of the industrial chain currently sit at relatively low levels for the year, serving as the most fundamental support for market fundamentals. On the cost front, sulfuric acid prices have fluctuated mildly, and comprehensive smelting cost support remains solid. Producers show little willingness to engage in aggressive price-cutting sell-offs, and price-holding sentiment is prevalent across the market, keeping the spot quotation system stable. Nevertheless, the industry retains a degree of latent supply elasticity; should downstream orders surge 集中，some plants possess the capacity to ramp up output rapidly, which would cap the extent of any price upside.

Structural differentiation on the demand side is highly pronounced. Market transactions rely heavily on annual and quarterly long-term contract orders to underpin the market, with long-term contracts accounting for a high proportion of total transaction volume. Downstream precursor enterprises procure on an as-needed basis, purchasing in small batches via just-in-time restocking, with no concentrated stockpiling activity observed. Overall spot market transactions remain tepid. Although late August approaches the traditional peak season and downstream stockpiling expectations have risen, with inquiry and pickup activity showing modest month-on-month improvement, this has not translated into large-volume order placements. Currently, most precursor enterprises remain in a wait-and-see posture, needing to observe actual conditions in downstream battery terminal production scheduling and inventory destocking before determining their own raw-material restocking rhythm; they are unwilling to hoard raw materials in advance. While the lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) track has clear long-term incremental logic, its current monthly incremental release rhythm is gradual, making it difficult to deliver explosive procurement pull in the short term.

In summary, the current manganese sulfate market is in a state of relative supply-demand equilibrium, with short-term price movements dominated by sideways consolidation. Conditions for either sharp gains or steep declines are absent. The market's core expectations are concentrated in early September, with participants broadly anticipating that this time window may see the release of new orders. However, whether this expectation materializes depends entirely on the actual degree of recovery in downstream battery terminal production scheduling. Supported by low inventories across the entire industrial chain, if downstream demand recovers as scheduled and orders are placed 集中，market trading activity will improve, and manganese sulfate prices will have an opportunity to rise steadily. Conversely, should terminal recovery fall short of expectations and the peak season be further delayed, the manganese sulfate market may continue sideways consolidation for an extended period, with prices unlikely to establish a trending direction. The industrial chain will continue to await confirmation of demand signals.