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Macro
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01
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[Wall Street Prophet: Signs of a US Housing Market Crash Emerge; 2008 Crisis Signals Reappear]
David Rosenberg, the former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch known as a "Wall Street prophet," recently warned that the US housing market was in trouble in many respects. The latest data showed that the situation was strikingly similar to conditions on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. The well-known US economist and president of Rosenberg Research successfully predicted the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the housing crash. Rosenberg said one early warning signal for the housing market appears before the housing crisis erupts. He wrote on Wednesday that this signal was the decline in the annual sales pace of homes, which had recently fallen below the level in early 2008, when the housing crash began. According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the annualized pace of existing-home sales in July fell nearly 2% to 4.06 million units. By comparison, NAR data showed that the annualized pace of existing-home sales in January 2008 was 4.89 million units. At the time, that was the lowest annualized pace of existing-home sales in the United States in nine years.
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Industries and Downstream
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01
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[Two Ministries: Support Regions with a Strong Industrial Base and High Development Potential to Cultivate and Build National Advanced Manufacturing Clusters in the Field of Safety and Emergency Equipment]
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Emergency Management issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Safety and Emergency Equipment Industry. The plan proposes to promote the development of industrial agglomeration. It will guide localities to develop the safety and emergency equipment industry based on local conditions by taking into account their industrial base, innovation resources, application scenarios, locational advantages, and development trends. It will support regions with a strong industrial base and high development potential to cultivate and build national advanced manufacturing clusters in the field of safety and emergency equipment, national demonstration bases for emerging industry development, distinctive industrial clusters for small and medium-sized enterprises, and innovation-oriented industrial clusters. Leveraging high-tech industrial development zones, economic and technological development zones, and other areas, it will build a number of distinctive parks or agglomeration areas that play a radiating and leading role in industrial agglomeration, collaborative innovation, ecosystem optimization, and governance improvement. It will formulate a capacity reserve list for safety and emergency equipment, strengthen dynamic management of production capacity, and track the supply chain distribution of key enterprises. It will strengthen cross-regional collaboration to form an industrial network featuring collaborative innovation and resource sharing.
02
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[SMM Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Balance] Affected by Typhoon, Total Inventory Destocked Temporarily This Week]
This week, SMM's survey showed that hot-rolled coil social inventory at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) stood at 4.4432 million mt, down 76,300 mt WoW, down 1.69% WoW, and up 34.48% YoY. By region, except for Central China and the Northeast China market, which saw slight inventory buildup, all other markets destocked.
03
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[Maersk Raises Guidance, Expects Global Container Market to Grow 4% This Year]
As global supply chain disruptions push freight rates higher, container shipping giant Maersk has again raised its full-year earnings guidance. The Copenhagen-based company said Thursday that full-year underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are expected to reach $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion, above the upper end of its previous forecast range of $10 billion. Maersk carries around one-seventh of the world's seaborne containers. The company had already raised its 2026 earnings outlook and global container volume growth forecast back in June. On Thursday, Maersk reiterated that it expects the global container market size to grow about 4% this year.
04
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[SMM Building Materials Weekly Balance] Extreme Weather Drags, Supply and Demand Both Weaken
On the supply side this period, for integrated steelmaking, steel mills' comprehensive per-mt margins for building materials were weak; some enterprises chose to reduce output or arrange rolling line maintenance. For EAF-based steelmaking, due to high inventory pressure combined with sustained losses, some producers in southwest and east China lowered operating hours or suspended production temporarily. On the demand side, recent heatwaves, typhoons, and rainstorms hit in succession, significantly slowing the pace of outdoor construction. In addition, new projects are generally scheduled to start in September, so near-term procurement demand for building materials from project customers is relatively weak, and the market remains in the traditional demand off-season. According to SMM statistics, in the current period, both mill inventories and social inventories accumulated to varying degrees. Total building materials inventory was 8.543 million mt, up 64,200 mt WoW, or +0.76% WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup accelerating slightly.
05
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SMM Iron Ore Ten-Port Inventory Data
According to SMM survey, on August 13, total inventories at the 10 ports tracked by SMM were 106.95 million mt, up 360,000 mt MoM. Concentrates and lump ore saw slight destocking, while coarse ore and pellets showed slight inventory buildup.
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Other Hot Topics
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⭕[Jiangxi Issues Yellow Rainstorm Warning]The Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory issued a yellow rainstorm warning signal at 16:19 on August 13, 2026: Over the next six hours, some areas of Jiujiang and Yingtan, the southern parts of Shangrao and Ji'an, and the northern part of Ganzhou may exceed 50 millimeters of precipitation. Locally, short-duration heavy rainfall, lightning, and other severe convective weather may occur. Please take precautions against secondary disasters such as urban and rural waterlogging, flooding of small and medium-sized rivers, flash floods, and geological disasters that may be triggered by heavy rainfall.
⭕[Ukraine Said It Had Put Forward New Proposals to End the Conflict; Russia Said It Was “Unaware” of Them]Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said on August 13 local time that Russia was not aware of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s proposal for ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ryabkov said that the visit to Russia by US presidential envoy Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner was still being monitored, and that once the US delegation’s plan was clear, Russia would be able to promptly arrange its reception.
⭕[Explosion at Shipyard in Fu’an, Fujian; Preliminary Information Indicated 1 Missing and 10 Injured]The reporter learned that at about 13:00 on August 13, a vessel caught fire at Huahai Shipyard in Gantang Town, Fu’an City, Fujian Province. While firefighters were carrying out on-site response operations, an explosion occurred at the site. Preliminary information indicated that one firefighter was missing and 10 other people were injured.
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