Smelter Arrivals Coupled with Import Inflows, Shanghai Spot Copper Inventory Buildup Pressure Emerges [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM June 22 news:

In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract trended weakly lower. The opening price was 104,990 yuan/mt, briefly retreating after a rapid rise to a session high of 105,200 yuan/mt before turning lower, dipping to an intraday low of 104,350 yuan/mt, then rebounding slightly toward the close to settle at 104,610 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract stood between a loss of 250 yuan/mt and a loss of 170 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for Shanghai copper cathode registered 2.80, up 0.05 WoW, while procurement sentiment came in at 2.60, down 0.05 WoW. Historical data can be queried in the database. Early in the morning session, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, with brands such as JCC and Lufang quoted at premiums of 20–30 yuan/mt, and Dajiang PC, Yuguang, Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, Zijin, and Honglu quoted at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Suppliers then quickly lowered their quotes—Tiefeng and Zhongtiaoshan were marked down to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, while Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng were quoted at EXW premiums of 30 yuan/mt; high-quality copper brands Guixi and Jintun large plate were quoted at premiums of 50–60 yuan/mt; registered SX-EW copper brands ESOX and BMKMOOK were quoted at discounts of 50–40 yuan/mt. In the second session, trading was sluggish, prompting suppliers to cut offers further—Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were quoted at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt; Tiefeng and others at discounts of 50–30 yuan/mt, Dajiang HS and Honglu at discounts of 20–10 yuan/mt; non-registered copper changed hands at discounts of 200–150 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, social inventory in the Shanghai region was recorded at 139,400 mt today, up 7,400 mt WoW from last Thursday; Jiangsu region inventory stood at 44,400 mt, up 2,500 mt WoW, showing a modest inventory buildup. According to SMM, the buildup mainly stemmed from arrivals from some domestic smelters combined with inflows of imported cargo, increasing supply-side pressure. In terms of market performance, overall trading was sluggish throughout the day. Early offers from suppliers at parity to a 30-yuan/mt premium failed to attract sufficient transactions, leading to multiple successive downward revisions. By the second session, actual transactions for standard-quality copper had fallen to discounts around 50–30 yuan/mt, with some suppliers offloading cargo, further dragging the premium center lower. Overall demand was weak—downstream users only made just-in-time procurement and showed little willingness to chase higher prices. Taken together, under the combined weight of inventory buildup and increased willingness to sell among suppliers, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.