Futures:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,979.5/mt. During China's Dragon Boat Festival holiday, overseas markets were again turbulent, as US-Iran peace talks stalled, undermining market trading confidence. LME lead exhibited a stepwise downward trend throughout the day, hitting an intraday low of $1,950/mt, and giving back all of the week's gains, eventually closing at $1,950/mt, down 1.32%.
Last Friday, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, SHFE lead was closed. It resumed normal trading today.
》 Click to view SMM lead spot historical prices
On the macro front:
Middle East peace talks reversed again: Iran's military announced on Saturday the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the enemy's "betrayal," and later stated that if Israel continues military operations in Lebanon, the strait will not reopen; the US military said it had not observed the closure of the strait. On Sunday, US President Trump said that if an agreement cannot be reached, the US may take control of the Strait of Hormuz and collect transit fees; if Iran does not cease its "proxy" operations in Lebanon, the US will launch more intense strikes.
Last Friday, in the lead spot market, SHFE lead lacked upward momentum, but tradable cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were still limited. Suppliers held prices firm and sold. Meanwhile, primary lead smelters offered EXW cargoes at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 80 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with fewer high-premium quotes. For secondary lead, smelters sold following the market, with secondary refined lead quotes at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approached, most downstream enterprises had completed pre-holiday stockpiling. Combined with enterprise holidays, downstream just-in-time procurement was also limited, with fewer inquiries, and spot market trading was sluggish.
Inventory: As of June 19, LME lead inventory stood at 301,950 mt, down 1,375 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot inventory was 65,185 mt, unchanged from the previous week.
》 Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Lead Price Forecast Today:
Recently, the overseas macro situation has been complex, and market risk-aversion sentiment has been relatively strong. In China, maintenance at primary and secondary lead enterprises has increased, and expectations of supply tightening are supporting lead prices. Meanwhile, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream enterprises resuming production will bring some just-in-time demand. However, it should be noted that at the half-year point, large downstream enterprises will close their books and conduct inventory checks, suspending lead ingot procurement, which will provide limited support for lead price movements.
Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice.
