Lithium Carbonate Market Weekly Review: During 6.15-6.18, spot lithium carbonate showed a trend of stabilizing first and then falling, fluctuating downward [SMM Weekly Review]

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices followed a stable-then-dropping trajectory, fluctuating downward. The futures market was weak, with the most-traded 2609 contract price range edging down from 172,600-177,900 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 160,100-172,500 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week low of 160,100 yuan/mt. The weekly decline was around 6.6%, open interest rose then fell, and market sentiment soured.

Market transactions featured "active trading on dips, a wait-and-see approach on rebounds," with downstream dip-buying willingness relatively strong. On the upstream lithium chemical plant side, quotes remained relatively firm, with a pronounced mindset of holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Some enterprises showed low willingness to sell below 170,000 yuan/mt and some adopted a deferred pricing model for shipments. On the downstream material plant side, as prices fluctuated downward, dip-buying willingness was relatively strong. They maintained a strategy of just-in-time restocking and need-based purchases, but with prices yet to stabilize, general willingness to stockpile on a large scale was weak, and most maintained operations at safe inventory levels. Overall, market inquiry sentiment was moderate, actual transactions were mainly just-in-time, and activity picked up compared to the earlier period.

Supply-side production edged down slightly, and industry chain inventories showed divergence. Lithium carbonate production edged down this week, with spodumene-based production basically stable. Despite some new capacity continuing steady production ramp-up, some lithium chemical plants saw output edge down due to raw material supply fluctuations. Other raw material-based operations remained stable. Looking at inventory changes: upstream lithium chemical plants saw an overall destocking trend this week, driven by increased long-term contract orders and some restocking demand from traders. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of dip-buying and need-based purchasing, keeping inventories at safe levels. Traders, driven by downstream just-in-time procurement, had some restocking demand, and overall inventory levels remained basically flat. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Continued attention should be paid to key points such as the warrant inflection point, the arrival pace of lithium ore from Zimbabwe, and the actual fulfillment of downstream production schedules.