SHFE Copper 2606 Contract Last Trading Day, Copper Prices Rose, Spot Premiums Were Slightly Under Pressure [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM, June 15:

Spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month SHFE copper 2606 contract was quoted at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 120 yuan/mt today, with an average premium of 45 yuan/mt. As today marked the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2606 contract, SMM adhered to its price assessment methodology to quote against the front-month contract. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2606 contract largely moved within 105,300–105,880 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper 2607 contract fluctuated between 105,350 and 105,960 yuan/mt. The price spread between the two contracts ranged from a contango of 80 yuan/mt to a backwardation of 30 yuan/mt. Import profit margins for SHFE copper against the 2606 front-month contract stood between a loss of 100 yuan/mt and a loss of 290 yuan/mt.

In the Shanghai region, sales sentiment for copper cathode registered 2.69, down 0.05 MoM, while procurement sentiment came in at 2.54, down 0.07 MoM; historical data can be accessed via the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper on par with to a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the SHFE copper 2607 contract. Specifically, brands such as JCC, Lufang, and Xiangguang were quoted at premiums of 20–30 yuan/mt; Zhongtiaoshan, Dajiang PC, Jinfeng, Tiefeng, Honglu, Zijin, and HMG-S were quoted on par with to a premium of 20 yuan/mt; while Jinguan, Jinxin, Jintun PC, and Jinfeng were quoted at EXW premiums of 20 yuan/mt. High-quality copper, such as Jintun large plate, was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading window, transactions remained sluggish, and suppliers trimmed their offers slightly. Lufang, Xiangguang, and JCC were quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt; Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, and Zijin were quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to parity. Registered SX-EW copper supply was scarce, with only limited lots from sources such as Esox circulating at a discount of 10 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper traded at discounts of 150–180 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices rose during the day, staying at a relatively high level. Combined with the futures contract rollover, both buying and selling activity remained muted, reflecting a notable curb on actual demand at current prices. After the contract rollover, the market will formally base pricing on the SHFE copper 2607 contract, with attention turning to the outflow of unmatched warrants. That said, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at about 5,500 lots, implying limited quantities for delivery. A concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert only relatively limited additional downward pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery dynamics, SHFE spot copper discounts did not decline sharply. However, if copper prices remain at these elevated levels, demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and spot premiums may come under downward pressure.