SHFE tin contract fluctuates downward but spot trades turn thin, energy prices push up ex-China inflation core [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Tin Midday Commentary – June 11, 2026

This morning, the tin market both in and outside China swung wildly at highs before its center drifted lower, amid a mix of bullish and bearish macro factors. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 401,850 yuan/mt and closed the morning session at 395,570 yuan/mt, down 1.08%. On the LME, three-month tin was last trading at $51,606/mt, down 0.77%.

On the macro front:

(1) On June 10, 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released May CPI data: Headline CPI rose 0.5% MoM, pushing the YoY rate to 4.2%—a new high since April 2023 and the third consecutive month of accelerating YoY growth. Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM, lifting the YoY rate to 2.9%, with the MoM increase coming in below market expectations. Energy prices were the main driver, with the energy index up 3.9% MoM and 23.5% YoY, including a 40.5% YoY surge in gasoline, significantly impacted by geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East. Food prices rose 0.2% MoM, housing costs increased 0.3% MoM, while core goods prices showed a weaker trend.

(2) Since early June 2026, the Middle East situation has deteriorated further. On June 7, an Israeli airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, triggered a forceful Iranian retaliation, with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launching medium-range ballistic missiles directly at an Israeli airbase in the north, shattering a two-month ceasefire completely. On June 10, the US military carried out airstrikes on multiple targets inside Iran under the banner of “self-defense,” and Iran promptly announced the total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, vowing to retaliate against US actions, escalating risks to Gulf shipping and energy supplies.

On the spot side, the release of downstream rigid demand in previous days, triggered by falling absolute prices, has largely run its course following the recent successive declines in futures prices. Although futures prices continued to fall intraday, they failed to attract fresh batch-buying follow-through, indicating that the stimulative effect of earlier price cuts on consumption has shown clear signs of marginal weakening.

Overall, the current tin market is caught in a multi-faceted tug-of-war between tightening macro expectations, escalating geopolitical risks, and waning industrial demand. While short-term US dollar index weakness offers some technical support to prices, the overall macro sentiment in the market remains broadly weak, weighed down by persistent high inflation fueling US Fed tightening expectations and the disruption to global supply chains from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In the near term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain in a pattern of wild swings within a range.