Overnight copper prices rebounded slightly, with bears reducing positions; the decline in copper prices stimulated procurement, and spot discounts narrowed noticeably [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,599/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,683/mt in early trading, then swung wildly downward, dipping to $13,590/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,590.5/mt, up 0.54%. Trading volume reached 19,200 lots, and open interest stood at 271,000 lots, down 1,319 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bear position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,780 yuan/mt, quickly rose to 104,870 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 104,270 yuan/mt, swung wildly afterward, and finally closed at 104,390 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, and open interest stood at 162,000 lots, down 1,482 lots from the previous trading day, also driven by bear position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) On Monday, June 8, the Central Bank of Chile released data showing that Chile's copper export value reached $5.14 billion in May, up 8.7% YoY. Chile is the world's largest copper producer. The country's trade surplus for the month was $2.44 billion, higher than the $1.91 billion surplus forecast by economists in a survey.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of June 8, the SHFE copper 2606 contract opened low and moved higher. The opening price was 104,020 yuan/mt. After opening, the price declined continuously, dipping to 103,360 yuan/mt, then stabilized and began to rise, touching a high of 104,370 yuan/mt, before pulling back slightly to close at 104,150 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts ranged from a Contango of 70 yuan/mt to a Backwardation of 30 yuan/mt. Import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract was between a loss of 530 yuan/mt and a loss of 410 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, last Friday (June 5) saw US May non-farm payrolls data significantly beat expectations, with upward revisions to March and April data, fueling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes within the year. The US dollar index reclaimed the 100 mark, exerting notable downward pressure on copper prices. According to SMM, after copper prices fell, end-user sentiment for dip-buying picked up, with active price fixing and orders increasing significantly compared to last Friday, boosting overall market trading activity. Suppliers showed reduced willingness to sell at low prices, and spot copper discounts in Shanghai narrowed markedly from earlier levels. From the delivery logic perspective, as the SHFE copper 2606 contract delivery week approaches, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses has strengthened, and available low-priced supply is likely to tighten further, supporting spot discounts. The spot discounts are expected to continue narrowing before delivery.
(2) Guangdong: On June 8, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,945 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,860 yuan/mt, down 1,390 yuan/mt. Overall, with copper prices and inventories both declining, suppliers actively held prices firm, and overall trading was slightly better than last Friday.
(3) Imported copper: On June 8, the average warrant price was flat compared to the previous trading day, quoted at $64/mt (range $60-68/mt); the average B/L price was flat compared to the previous trading day, quoted at $65/mt (range $61-69/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat compared to the previous trading day, quoted at $33/mt (range $28-38/mt), with quotes referencing arrivals in mid-to-late June and early July.
(4) Secondary copper: On June 8 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,150 yuan/mt, down 1,460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was -10 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices fell by 600 yuan/mt MoM, the secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index fell to 2.56, the purchase sentiment index fell to 2.34, the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,961 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan/mt MoM, and the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 790 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices failed to rebound effectively, secondary copper rod enterprises reported that there was still downside room for copper prices and were unwilling to purchase during the day, while secondary copper raw material traders were also reluctant to sell, resulting in overall sluggish market transactions.
Price: On the macro front, Iran and Israel exchanged fire for the first time since April. Houthi forces launched missiles at Israel and announced a ban on Israeli navigation in the Red Sea. Trump urged both sides to cease fire, stating that peace negotiations were underway. Iran subsequently announced a temporary end to strikes against Israel, and Israel halted preparations for retaliation, though warning it would strike the southern suburbs of Beirut if its territory was attacked. Trump warned Netanyahu that fighting another war with Iran could leave Israel isolated. Iran's UN representative expressed hope that US-Iran negotiations would reach an agreement by the end of June. Impacted by the ceasefire after the brief exchange, crude oil prices retreated after a rapid rise, and copper prices rebounded accordingly. On the supply side, arrivals of imported and domestic sources were limited, suppliers held prices firm, and available low-priced sources in the market were limited. On the demand side, following a notable pullback in copper prices, downstream purchase willingness increased, and demand recovered slightly. As for inventories, as of Monday, June 8, SMM nationwide mainstream copper inventories fell MoM, with total inventories at 233,000 mt, an increase of 83,500 mt from 149,500 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate upward today.
[The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]