SMM June 2 News:
In May, the rare earth market entered its traditional off-season. Although occasional factors such as major producers' procurement briefly boosted rare earth prices, weak downstream demand kept prices under pressure and pulling back throughout May. Pr-Nd oxide and dysprosium oxide fell 11% and 11.79% respectively in May, while terbium oxide also edged down. On the supply side, production showed an increasing trend — domestic rare earth oxide production was up across the board MoM in May. Combined with continued inflows of ex-China sources, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides in the first four months surged 103% YoY, and the supply-demand mismatch further weighed on rare earth price performance in May. Since early June, Pr-Nd oxide and other rare earth products have seen slight price rebounds driven by major producers' restocking and futures fluctuations. However, the off-season demand shortfall persists — how will the rare earth market perform going forward?
Pr-Nd Oxide Down 11% in May, Dysprosium Oxide Down 11.79%, Terbium Oxide Down 1.63%
Light rare earth prices:Taking the historical price trend of Pr-Nd oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on May 29 was 687,500 yuan/mt, compared with 772,500 yuan/mt on April 30, down 85,000 yuan/mt in May, a monthly decline of 11%. Entering June, Pr-Nd oxide continued to rise, with an average price of 700,500 yuan/mt on June 2.
Medium-heavy rare earth prices:Taking the trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of dysprosium oxide on May 29 was 1,230 yuan/kg, compared with 1,375 yuan/kg on April 30, down 145 yuan/kg in May, a monthly decline of 11.79%. Entering June, dysprosium oxide prices edged up, with an average price of 1,240 yuan/kg on June 2.
Taking the trend of terbium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing: the average price of terbium oxide on May 29 was 6,025 yuan/kg, compared with 6,125 yuan/kg on April 30, down 100 yuan/kg in May, a monthly decline of 1.63%. Entering June, terbium oxide prices edged up slightly, with an average price of 6,035 yuan/kg on June 2.
Oxide Production Up Across the Board MoM in May
Production:Driven by increased production from scrap recycling enterprises and production resumptions at some enterprises that had previously undergone equipment maintenance, production of Pr-Nd oxide and other rare earth oxides edged up in May compared with April.
Imports of Unlisted Rare Earth Oxides Up 103% YoY, January-April
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of thorium ore and concentrates totaled 21,443 mt from January to April 2026, nearly flat YoY. Imports in April were 4,081 mt, up 22% MoM but up 32% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's imports of unlisted rare earth oxides reached approximately 26,123 mt, a significant YoY increase of 103%. Currently, the operating rate of rare earth mines outside China remains relatively high, keeping actual supply in the international market at ample levels.
Outlook
Recently, driven by futures market price fluctuations and periodic restocking by some large enterprises, rare earth prices rose. However, due to lackluster downstream orders, even though downstream enterprises' raw material inventory remained at relatively low levels, end-user wait-and-see sentiment was strong and enterprises showed little enthusiasm for restocking and stockpiling. It is expected that rare earth prices will return to being in the doldrums until downstream orders see a notable increase and market confidence shows a clear recovery.
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