Iron Ore Supply Pressure Intensifies, Prices in the Doldrums [SMM Imported Ore Daily Brief]

Iron ore futures moved sideways today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 781 yuan/mt, down 0.19% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices edged down 0-3 yuan from the previous day. Traders offered prices in line with the market; steel mills remained cautious and on the sidelines, purchasing as needed; overall market trading atmosphere was sluggish. The transaction price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 751 yuan/mt. The transaction price of PB fines at Caofeidian port was 760 yuan/mt, and that of Jimblebar fines was 723 yuan/mt.

According to SMM shipping data last week, global iron ore shipments continued to grow, up 3.65% WoW, though the growth rate had narrowed; meanwhile, port arrivals rebounded significantly, up 11% WoW. Entering June, some mines are expected to ramp up shipments to meet fiscal year or quarterly targets, and iron ore shipments still have room for further growth, with supply pressure continuing to rise. Demand side, although hot metal production still had some incremental growth, considering weakening steel mill profits and gradually softening end-use demand, the upside for hot metal output is limited, and port inventory is expected to continue accumulating. Overall, iron ore prices are under pressure and may maintain a sideways pattern in the short term.