Focusing on Panama Copper Mine Audit Report, LME Copper and SHFE Copper Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

2026.5.29 Friday
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,576.5/mt, dipping to $13,554.5/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of $13,747/mt near the close, and ultimately closed at $13,746.5/mt, up 1.71%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest reached 276,000 lots, an increase of 5,289 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,450 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward early in the session to a low of 104,100 yuan/mt, then the price center moved sharply upward, reaching 105,290 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately closed at 105,270 yuan/mt, up 1.17%. Trading volume reached 41,000 lots, and open interest reached 177,000 lots, a decrease of 310 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) On May 29 (Friday), Panama plans to release the final audit report on First Quantum Minerals' (TSX: FM) closed copper mine. Meanwhile, anti-mining protests have resurfaced, and expectations over the government's next steps regarding the suspended copper mine operations are growing. According to local newspaper La Estrella de Panamá, Environment Minister Juan Carlos Navarro stated that the third-party report on the Cobre Panamá mine, once finalized, would be made public in a "completely transparent" manner.
Following the release of six preliminary reports, the audit entered its final phase of technical analysis and verification last week. Commerce Minister Julio Moltó stated that President José Raúl Mulino would decide the mine's future after the government reviews the audit results. Navarro said: "The report will be very extensive and will require comprehensive analysis. The report will be made public so that everyone can study it."
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On May 28, the SHFE copper 2606 contract edged down early in the morning session before stabilizing and rebounding, opening at 103,980 yuan/mt. After the opening, prices edged down, dipping to 103,510 yuan/mt, then stabilized and fluctuated between 103,650 yuan/mt and 103,830 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 103,830 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread ranged between 110 yuan/mt and 50 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2606 contract ranged from a loss of 210 yuan/mt to a loss of 120 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, intraday copper prices edged down, activating some downstream buying interest. According to SMM, some processing enterprises in east China saw improved orders compared to the previous day, and end-users mostly placed orders at around 103,600 yuan/mt. Available cargo in Changzhou appeared relatively tight, which may provide some support for local spot prices. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread narrowed slightly, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened, spot circulation pressure increased marginally, pushing the discount to widen further. Overall, amid the interplay of narrowing price spreads pressuring discounts, limited marginal demand improvement, and tight regional supply, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2606 contract are expected to remain at a discount today, continuing the overall trend of being under pressure.
(2) Guangdong: On May 28, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 120 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,695 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,590 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, after copper prices pulled back, some individual enterprises increased procurement, but overall trading activity remained subdued.
(3) Imported copper: On May 28, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $71/mt (price range $66-76/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $72/mt (price range $68-76/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat from the previous trading day at $42/mt (price range $38-46/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in late May and early June.
(4) Secondary copper: On May 28 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 103,830 yuan/mt, down 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium was -90 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices decreased by 500 yuan/mt MoM. The copper scrap selling sentiment index fell to 2.66, and the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.32. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,952 yuan/mt, down 657 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 970 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper scrap market supply tightened due to falling copper prices. Some secondary copper rod enterprises had to raise prices to secure supplies, and payment terms had to extend beyond two weeks. Although copper scrap traders were concerned about payment security risks, they still chose to sell copper scrap to higher-bidding secondary copper rod enterprises, attracted by the high prices.
Prices: On the macro front, US April core PCE inflation rose to 3.3%. US Fed officials remained open to rate hikes but considered the current policy stance well-positioned. Iran's Revolutionary Guard struck US military bases, escalating bilateral military conflict. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has not yet been finalised, with Iran demanding unconditional asset unfreezing while the US insists on nuclear concessions as a precondition and denies the strait transit fee plan. Expectations of a US-Iran deal gradually deepened, and combined with PCE data meeting market expectations, this boosted copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, domestic arrivals rebounded slightly while imported arrivals remained tight; demand side, driven by the phased pullback in copper prices, downstream stocking willingness improved and market trading activity recovered. Inventory side, as of Thursday May 28, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 1,000 mt WoW to 245,200 mt, with total inventories up 105,300 mt compared to the same period last year at 139,900 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]