[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (May 18 – May 22), the most-traded platinum futures contract PT2606 on China's GFEX opened at 490.1 yuan/gram and closed at 485 yuan/gram, down 17.4 yuan/gram or 3.46% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 496.4 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 474.35 yuan/gram; the most-traded palladium futures contract PD2606 opened at 340.35 yuan/gram and closed at 332.2 yuan/gram, down 13.85 yuan/gram or 4.00% from last week's settlement price, with a highest price of 343.95 yuan/gram and a lowest price of 327.65 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading volume: the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,633 lots with a total turnover of 9.074 billion yuan and open interest of 7,283 lots, down 2,687 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 14,380 lots with a total turnover of 4.824 billion yuan and open interest of 5,213 lots, down 1,352 lots WoW.
Platinum and palladium were in the doldrums this week. Both saw significant declines at the beginning of the week, mainly due to repeated Middle East geopolitical tensions with slow progress in US-Iran negotiations, critically low global crude oil inventories driving oil prices higher, coupled with rising rate hike expectations and rising US Treasury yields, which continued to weigh on precious metals valuations. After Wednesday, as US-Iran tensions eased somewhat, falling oil prices combined with pullbacks in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields led precious metals futures to rebound slightly, but the rebound was limited and failed to recover the ground lost at the beginning of the week.
US Fed: Key focus should be on the swearing-in speech to be delivered tonight. Based on Warsh's previous policy stance, if he insists on prioritizing inflation fighting and releases rate hike expectations, precious metals are expected to remain under sustained pressure in the short term.
Trade and tariffs: A constructive strategic stability relationship between China and the US was established, with the 10% fentanyl tariff on China removed, the 24% punitive tariff on China extended for another 18-month suspension, and the Section 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding, logistics, and maritime sectors suspended for 18 months, reducing trade and tariff uncertainties.
In the near term, key areas to watch remain changes in US-Iran dynamics, GFEX platinum and palladium registered warrants, Warsh's inaugural speech, and trial results of palladium applications in the fiberglass sector.
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