US Dollar Index Continued to Strengthen, LME Zinc Retreated from Highs [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes, May 18

Futures: Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,589.5/mt, touched a high of $3,590/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward, hitting an intraday low of $3,510/mt, before hovering at lows around the daily moving average, finally closing down at $3,538.5/mt, down $48.5/mt or 1.35%, with trading volume decreasing to 12,405 lots and open interest increasing by 584 lots to 243,000 lots. Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract opened at 24,650 yuan/mt, after which SHFE zinc fluctuated around the moving average, touching an intraday high of 24,770 yuan/mt. Near the end of the session, SHFE zinc hit a low of 24,600 yuan/mt before rising again to near the daily moving average, finally closing up at 24,715 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt or 0.1%, with trading volume decreasing to 46,996 lots and open interest decreasing by 1,943 lots.

Macro: Israeli media: Netanyahu spoke with Trump, discussing the possibility of resuming military operations against Iran; Trump issued a military threat to Iran, with military action options to be discussed on Tuesday; US media: Iran plans to charge transit fees for submarine fiber optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz; UK media: UK Prime Minister Starmer intends to resign from his position; CXMT: H1 revenue is expected to reach 110 billion to 120 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 50 billion to 57 billion yuan; China successfully launched the 9th batch of networking satellites for the Qianfan constellation; Wuxi plans to establish a large-scale "Token Factory"; the Shenzhou-23 mission plans to launch in the coming days.

Spot market:

Shanghai: Last Friday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Shanghai region was 2.06, and the shipments sentiment was 2.60. Last Friday morning, futures zinc prices edged down slightly. At the end of the week, some downstream enterprises purchased to restock, spot trades improved somewhat, traders actively offered shipments, and overall spot premiums were basically stable.

Guangdong: Last Friday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Guangdong region was 1.52, and the sales sentiment was 2.43. Last Friday, the zinc price center moved lower, but consumption in the Guangdong region was weak, downstream purchasing demand was low, market trades were mostly small restocking for rigid demand, and spot premiums continued to decline.

Tianjin: Last Friday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Tianjin region was 1.76, and the shipments sentiment was 2.39. Last Friday, the zinc price center pulled back slightly, but downstream participants still held bearish expectations. Combined with weak consumption, purchasing willingness remained low, traders' shipment premiums were slightly stable, and overall market trades remained poor.

Ningbo: Last Friday, there were still few traders offering shipments in the Ningbo market, and overall spot premiums remained stable from Thursday. Last Friday, futures zinc prices edged down, some alloy plants restocked as needed, but mostly purchased at back-priced terms, and overall spot trades in the market were mediocre.

Social inventory: On May 14, LME zinc inventory decreased by 125 mt to 110,750 mt, a decline of 0.11%. According to SMM communication, as of May 14, China's inventory edged up.

Zinc price forecast: Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average providing support. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, and non-ferrous metal prices were under pressure. LME zinc also fell from high levels. Last Friday, SHFE zinc recorded a bullish candlestick, with the 5-day moving average above forming resistance. Influenced by LME trends, SHFE zinc's center also shifted lower. However, zinc concentrate TCs continued to decline, still providing some support for zinc prices. During the night session, SHFE zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.