By 2024, China’s FDI stock in the DRC reached USD 4.27 billion, with the mining sector acting as the primary engine, contributing USD 4.36 billion to public coffers - nearly 47% of total fiscal revenue in 2024. The industrial ecosystem is anchored by GECAMINES, with substantial participation from Chinese consortia—led by CMOC, Sicomines, Zijin Mining, and CNMC. These organizations, alongside Western-based majors like Glencore and ERG, form the core investor base competing for the region’s premium Tier-1 resources.
Total copper production in the DRC rose from 2.4 Mt in 2022 to 3.4 Mt in 2025, with the share of the SX-EW output increasing from 77% to 83% over the same period. This growth in leaching-based SX-EW production is set to drive a rise in sulphuric acid demand, straining regional supply as producers ramp up the output. DRC’s SX-EW output reached up to 2.8 Mt in 2025, yet this capacity rests on a fragile logistics foundation of both acid and energy supply chains.
Currently, the DRC relies on three primary acid sources: acid imports from Zambia, sulfur imports from the Middle East, and by-product acid from domestic concentrate plants.
To sustain its copper production, the DRC imported around 2.7 Mt of sulphur in 2023, with a staggering around 80% sourced from the Middle East. This reliance is further exacerbated by the shrinking regional supply: even before Zambia’s 2025 export ban, sulphuric acid inflows from Zambia had already dropped from 750 kt in 2022 to 480 kt in 2024. Meanwhile, acid production from domestic concentrate plants has plateaued at approximately 550 kt since 2022. This widening supply-demand gap suggests that the continued growth in SX-EW output through 2025 and 2026 has been fueled by a higher acid consumption, placing an even heavier burden on the fragile Middle Eastern sulphur trade route. Kamoa-Kakula’s Q1 2026 with the acid production of 118 kt provides a regional buffer, it serves as a partial offset. Based on our visit, current port stocks of sulphur are estimated at around 200,000 t, providing a critical short-term buffer that can support operations through immediate supply disruptions.
On-site investigation further shows that sulphuric acid consumption varies among copper smelters in DRC from around 3.0 t/t copper to 6.0 t/t copper. The increase in acid consumption is mainly driven by the ore grade deterioration and mineralogical transition from oxide to mixed and sulfide ore. It made the SX-EW plants tend to upgrade the technology to conquer the ore challenges.
Energy scarcity has become the primary limitation factor for stable operation of copper smelters in DRC. Despite an installed capacity of around 2,800 MW in 2025, the DRC’s actual grid reliability remains fragile, meeting only 40% of the Katanga mining district's requirements.
The transition to diesel is proving financially unsustainable. A series of aggressive fiscal measures saw the special excise tax on diesel climb from 0.65 USD/L in 2025 to 1.48 USD/L by March 2026. When coupled with global price volatility, the fully taxed cost has surged to 3.38 USD/L. Consequently, diesel-generated power costs have doubled to over 0.8 USD/kWh since late 2025. This has created a widening gap: tier-1 majors with renewable power sources maintain a competitive floor, while smaller operators, trapped in high-cost diesel-fired power generation, face a margin collapse. Because diesel fuels the entire value chain—from 100% diesel-driven mobile fleets in open pits to massive diesel-fired generators for smelting and refining—any increase in fuel cost triggers a compounding effect on margins.
Furthermore, as a land-locked country the infrastructure in DRC remains a major bottleneck. Out of 58,000 km of national roads, only 23% are well-maintained. This poor infrastructure, combined with congestion at Dar es Salaam and other key ports, has pushed the transit time for 2 million tons of metals exports every year from 12 days to more than 25 days. The 5,000 km rail system remains largely derelict due to inconsistent standards and its single-track design. Freight charges have risen by over 10% from the 2025 level, driven primarily by surging diesel prices. Coupled with a doubling of the transport cycle, these bottlenecks directly strain liquidity by extending working capital cycles for both raw material inputs and mineral exports.
The operating costs at some copper smelters have surged by approximately 3,000 USD/t compared to 2024 levels. This cost escalation is primarily driven by two factors: higher acid expenses and surging energy costs. This shift is reshaping the global cost curve, moving some DRC producers from the lower-cost into the high-cost bracket. A "survival threshold" is now evident. Companies with their own renewable power and sulphuric acid plants can still absorb these costs. However, standalone SX-EW plants - facing a margin squeeze—are moving toward zero or negative margins and may entre turnarounds in advance within the next month.
SMM expects the surge in sulfur and diesel prices to be short-lived, with prices normalizing as the conflict in Iran concludes. However, mines face a long-term challenge as operations move deeper, making the mineralogical transition an industry certainty. Looking ahead, the expansion of DRC concentrate plants will increase local sulphuric acid supply, gradually lowering acid prices. Furthermore, electricity costs are expected to drop as hydroelectric, PV, and energy storage projects come online, finally addressing the power shortages in the Copperbelt. Acid-saving technology is no longer a choice but a necessity. As ore grades drop and minerals change, plants that cannot reduce their acid-intensity will be economically unviable, regardless of the copper price.
Diesel generators are the only practical choice for immediate needs due to fast installation, even though they are the primary driver of the current cost crisis. As many renewable energy projects are expected to come on stream after 2027, some copper smelters in DRC could become more independent on diesel-fired power in the future. To address the reliance on expensive imported consumables, the region must upgrade rail and road infrastructure to shorten the high-cost logistics cycle.
Contact details: Chundi Feng
Phone: 447410506839
Email: chundi.feng@smm.cn
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