[SMM Iron & Steel] US Steel Exports Up 6% in March 2026 but Q1 Volume Lags Behind 2025

During the survey period (May 5-11), the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of rebar and wire rod in the Central China region both increased.

【SMM Steel】ArcelorMittal Spain's president expressed doubts about EU's new steel market safeguards. From July 2026, duties on over-quota steel will rise from 25% to 50%. Despite tighter protections, the company expects a less active year-end due to geopolitical uncertainty. In Spain, imported steel share rose from 22% in 2012 to over 50% last year, indicating systemic loss of competitiveness. EAF economics remain more complex than BF models. The new EU rules set annual duty-free quota at 18.3 million tonnes with 50% over-quota duties.

【SMM Steel】US industry groups expressed serious concern over growth of global steel overcapacity. China's removal of VAT export rebates and Brazil's reinstatement of import tariffs on certain steel types could redirect surplus volumes to North America. Global overcapacity could exceed 680Mt by end-2025, with growth rates at 15-year highs, creating long-term pressure on prices and margins. Trade tensions between major economies are intensifying. Ukrainian metal companies should monitor these signals and prepare for continued instability through 2026.