US Dollar Fell, Metals Rose Across the Board, SHFE Tin and Lithium Carbonate Up Over 6%, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium All Rallied, Crude Oil Pulled Back [SMM Midday Review]

SMM News, May 6:

Metals market:

As of the midday close, all base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper was up 1.65%, SHFE aluminum up 1.17%, SHFE lead up 1.74%, SHFE zinc up 2.24%, SHFE tin up 6.6%, and SHFE nickel up 3.86%.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were up 1.07%, the most-traded alumina futures were down 0.56%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures were up 6.59%, the most-traded silicon metal futures were up 1.77%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures were up 1%.

Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore was up 2.52%, rebar up 1.44%, hot-rolled coil up 2.02%, and stainless steel up 1.81%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 2.29%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 2.04%.

Overseas base metals: as of 11:42, all LME metals rose. LME copper was up 1.37%, LME aluminum up 0.36%, LME lead up 0.41%, LME zinc up 1.65%, LME tin up 4.43%, and LME nickel up 1.66%.

Precious metals: as of 11:42, COMEX gold was up 1.85% and COMEX silver up 3.18%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.84%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 5.15%.

Analysts noted that gold futures prices rose as Middle East tensions eased. Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia pointed out in a research note that Trump's announcement of a temporary suspension of plans to provide safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels eased tensions. Since gold hit an intraday high of $5,422/oz on March 2, gold futures have largely moved inversely with the degree of Middle East tensions. Dhar added that upside drivers for gold prices could come from several areas: hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, market pricing of interest rate cuts due to high energy prices dragging on global growth, and concerns about US Fed independence. (Jin10)

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures were up 4.14%, and the most-traded palladium futures were up 4.42%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 2.75%, at 2,339.3 points.

As of 11:42 on May 6, midday futures quotes for selected contracts:

Spot and fundamentals

Zinc:Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 23,845-24,215 yuan/mt. Shuangyan had no transactions for now. #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 23,775-24,145 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the market quoted premiums of 70-100 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against futures for now...

Macro front

Domestic:

[China's April RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6, accelerating expansion; new orders grew for the 40th consecutive month]China's services sector activity further accelerated in April, with the composite PMI climbing to its second-highest level in nearly two years, indicating that domestic economic recovery momentum continued to build. On May 6, the latest data showed that the RatingDog China General Services Business Activity Index rose to 52.6 in April from 52.1 in March,marking an acceleration signal in the consecutive growth sequence, with the current expansion cycle having started in January 2023. Meanwhile, the composite output index covering both manufacturing and services rose from 51.5 in March to 53.1,the second-fastest pace since May 2024, indicating a broad-based strengthening of overall business activity in China.

[11.279 million cross-border trips made during Labour Day holiday, up 3.5% YoY]According to the National Immigration Administration, border inspection agencies across China facilitated 11.279 million cross-border trips during this year's Labour Day holiday, with a daily average of 2.256 million trips, up 3.5% YoY. The single-day peak occurred on May 2, reaching 2.529 million trips. Among them, foreigners made 1.255 million entry and exit trips, up 12.5% YoY. Of inbound foreigners, 436,000 entered under visa-free policies, up 14.7% YoY. A total of 531,000 cross-border transport vehicles (aircraft, vessels, trains, and vehicles) were inspected, up 16.6% YoY. (CCTV News)

[MIIT: Q1 revenue of above-scale electronic information manufacturing industry up 14.8% YoY]MIIT released the operating data of the electronic information manufacturing industry for Q1 2026. In Q1 2026, China's electronic information manufacturing industry saw rapid production growth, continued export recovery, significantly improved profitability, accelerated investment growth, and an overall sound development trend. In Q1, above-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 4.31 trillion yuan, up 14.8% YoY; operating costs were 3.69 trillion yuan, up 11.7% YoY; total profits reached 217 billion yuan, up 1.25 times YoY. In March, above-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 1.68 trillion yuan, up 15.7% YoY.

[PBOC net drained 393.1 billion yuan via reverse repo operations today]PBOC conducted 26 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 419.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drainage of 393.1 billion yuan was achieved.

US dollar:

As of 11:42, the US dollar index was down 0.21% at 98.28. Bond traders are increasingly betting that the US Fed's next policy move could be a rate hike rather than a cut. Swap contracts tied to central bank rate decisions now show that the market expects a greater than 50% probability of a rate hike by the US Fed before April next year, ahead of any rate cut. More traders are also building positions to hedge against the rising probability of a rate hike before year-end. This shift in market sentiment comes as policymakers appear increasingly divided on the rate outlook. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, believes that rate cuts remain possible this year, but the probability will gradually diminish as the Iran conflict drags on. He said: "Without question, the road ahead for Waller will be challenging." According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.0%, with a 4.0% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 88.8%, with a 10.9% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 0.3% probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut.

Bill Northey, senior investment director at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group, said: "At this point, the Iran situation does not appear to have materially escalated, and the market is breathing a sigh of relief." Although hostilities in the Middle East appeared to ease on Tuesday, the conflict continues to affect US economic indicators ahead and the US Fed's rate decisions. He added that, for example, if the Strait of Hormuz can be safely and fully reopened, it would dampen expectations of rising inflation and push 10-year US Treasury yields lower. "Our base case is that this volatility is likely to persist," Northey said. (Jin10)

Data:

Data to be released today include France's March industrial output MoM, France's April services PMI final, Germany's April services PMI final, Eurozone April services PMI final, UK April services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also watch: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

Crude oil:

As of 11:42, both benchmarks fell. WTI was down 1.39% and Brent down 1.4%. The ING commodities strategy team said in a report that as the US-Iran ceasefire agreement appears to be holding, the oil market is again facing downward pressure. Trump said "significant progress" has been made toward a "full and final deal" with Iran. The team noted that reaching an agreement to normalize oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is critical. (Jin10)

After the Iran conflict triggered fuel supply panic in Australia, Australia plans to include a A$10 billion ($7.2 billion) fuel security and resilience plan in next week's budget proposal. Australian Prime Minister Albanese said the plan will help build fuel and fertilizer reserves, including supporting the expansion of total diesel and aviation fuel reserves to 50 days of supply. He also said the government itself will hold approximately 1 billion liters of fuel reserves. The Prime Minister and Energy Minister discussed the plan after a national security meeting in Sydney. Australia's Energy Minister said Australia has responded to the crisis and currently holds more domestic fuel reserves than at the start of the Iran conflict. He said: "This marks a significant shift in how our nation responds. We have been studying how to be better prepared for future shocks." (Jin10)

Spot market overview:

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