[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 27 – April 30), the most-traded PT2606 futures contract on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 504 yuan/gram and closed at 489.55 yuan/gram, down 13.35 yuan/gram (2.65%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 511.45 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 480.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded PD2606 futures contract opened at 365 yuan/gram and closed at 364.65 yuan/gram, up 2.9 yuan/gram (0.79%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 368.2 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 350.45 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded PT2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,824 lots with a total turnover of 9.305 billion yuan and open interest of 15,008 lots, down 512 lots WoW. The most-traded PD2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,512 lots with a total turnover of 4.128 billion yuan and open interest of 7,526 lots, down 317 lots WoW.
US-Iran conflict: Geopolitical concerns remained unresolved. On April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from passing vessels. On April 29, the US prohibited US individuals or entities from paying Hormuz transit fees to Iran, and non-US individuals or entities paying Hormuz security transit fees to Iran would also face significant sanctions risks. On April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran abandoning nuclear weapons was the bottom line and said negotiations with Iran were being conducted by phone.
US monetary policy: The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, but divisions intensified, with one member advocating an interest rate cut and three opposing the release of dovish signals. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainty over the economic outlook. Powell announced that after stepping down as chair, he would remain at the US Fed as a governor with his term extending into early 2028, breaking the decades-long convention of outgoing chairs departing when their successors took office. Powell stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the US Fed's ability to set monetary policy free from political interference and undermining the institution's stability.
Trade and tariffs: After the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs through Executive Orders 122, 232, and 301; the US Department of Commerce and USITC's final antidumping and countervailing duty determinations on Russian palladium could lead to tariff raises, with attention on US palladium regional premiums.
On the events front, continued focus should be on Middle East geopolitical developments and US Fed officials' speeches. Attention should also be paid to palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.
