SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.7
Futures:Before the holiday (April 3), alumina had no night session. On that day, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,768 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,770 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,723 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,741 yuan/mt, down 23 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest decreased by 14,400 lots to 178,000 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (2,806.80), MA10 (2,896.50), and MA30 (2,888.37), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward movement. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DEA (20.11) crossed above DIF (-15.03), with a "death cross continuation," and the histogram bar at -70.21, suggesting that alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts, commissioning plans for new capacity, and inventory changes.
Industry Updates:
1) According to SMM statistics on April 3, total bauxite inventory at 10 domestic ports increased by 2.17 million mt MoM.
2) According to SMM, the caustic soda procurement price for mainstream alumina refineries in Guangxi Province in April rose by 450 yuan/mt MoM from March, with the 50% ion-membrane liquid caustic soda delivery-to-factory prices at approximately 3,500 yuan/mt (converted to 100% concentration), with slight price differences across regions due to varying transportation distances.
Ore:As of April 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $68.47/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $68.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $76.5/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $78/mt, flat from last Friday. Overall, domestic ore supply was relatively sufficient, and ore prices were basically stable. Import ore side, against the backdrop of ocean freight rate fluctuations, major mines controlled shipments, market sentiment toward trading quotas weakened, and coupled with alumina refinery inventories remaining at high levels (approximately 93 days), procurement demand was suppressed, with buyers and sellers continuing to negotiate on pricing. Short-term ore prices are unlikely to see significant growth, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends.Spot Prices:As of April 3, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,786.33 yuan/mt, down 1.4 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,772.26 yuan/mt, down 1.4 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,827.37 yuan/mt, down 1.1 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,810.14 yuan/mt, down 0.66 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,817.52 yuan/mt, down 1.9 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,772 yuan/mt, down 3.53 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on April 3, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 46.33 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:On April 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 14,340 mt from the previous trading day to 450,900 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants increased by 8,942 mt from the previous trading day to 52,888 mt; Henan region alumina warrants increased by 5,094 mt from the previous trading day to 17,710 mt; Guangxi region alumina warrants decreased by 901 mt from the previous trading day to 32,154 mt; Gansu region alumina warrants remained flat from the previous trading day at 49,847 mt; Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 1,204 mt from the previous trading day to 29.83 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of March 26, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $312/mt, the ocean freight rate was $31.05/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.92. This translated to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,762.32 yuan/mt, which was 11.02 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model calculation, the import window was open.
Summary: As of last Thursday, the domestic alumina market showed a slight destocking trend, with overall inventory decreasing by 22,000 mt. Supply-demand structure side, inventory changes were mainly driven by aluminum smelter destocking and the gradual emergence of new production from the supply side. Supply side, a certain alumina refinery in Shandong started feeding at month-end last week. Although the industry operating rate edged down by 0.23 percentage points this week, weekly production edged up by 2,000 mt. With the commissioning of new capacity, the supply side showed a marginally looser trend overall. Inventory side, aluminum smelters destocked by 41,000 mt, mainly because the spot alumina market in south China was relatively tight, and spot prices rose compared with the previous period, leading to lower restocking willingness and further accelerating the decline in aluminum smelter inventories. Finished product inventories at alumina refineries edged up by 4,000 mt to 1.237 million mt, mainly driven by the price rebound boosting enterprise production enthusiasm, with inventories seeing slight buildup after production increased. Port inventories as well as in-transit and platform inventories saw little change this week, mainly due to no new vessel arrivals, with external circulation channels remaining stable. SHFE futures warrant side, Xinjiang region inventories remained at high levels, the overall pace of shipping to delivery warehouses slowed compared with the previous period, and meanwhile cargo prices declined during the period, reducing market willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, which somewhat suppressed the increase in futures warrants. Looking ahead to next week, as newly commissioned capacity continues to release, supply-side increments are expected to gradually emerge. Given insufficient restocking momentum on the demand side, alumina inventories are expected to show signs of slight inventory buildup, with overall prices likely to remain relatively stable in the short term. However, the marginal impact of increased supply on the market is expected to gradually intensify, with the possibility of the inventory structure shifting toward buildup.
[Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
