SMM Alumina Morning Comment 3.26
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,950 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 2,963 yuan/mt and a low of 2,933 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,936 yuan/mt, down 29 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 8,969 lots to 229,800 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. From a technical perspective, the closing price was below MA5 (3,009.40) and MA10 (3,011.60), indicating certain overhead resistance for upward moves, but remained above MA30 (2,888.63), providing some bottom support. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator's DEA (52.52) crossed above DIF (52.06), forming a bearish crossover at a low level, with the histogram at -0.94. Alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term, and attention should continue to be paid to geopolitical impacts and commissioning plans for new capacity.
Industry Updates: 1) Mining Minister Bouna Syla said in an interview with foreign media on March 24: "This is not really a quota, but we will cut bauxite exports." He ruled out the possibility of an export ban and emphasized that "all enterprises will be affected." The move aims to generate more fiscal revenue for the country while ensuring sustainable operations for mining operators. SMM will continue to monitor the specific implementation timeline and related details of the Guinean government's policy. 2) On March 24, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded in markets outside China at a transaction price of $320/mt FOB Western Australia, with shipment scheduled for late April or early May.
Ore:As of March 25, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $67.69/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $67/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $52/mt, up $2/mt from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $62.5/mt, up $2.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $75.5/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $76.5/mt, up $3.5/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, prices continued to be contested and fluctuated downward. Imported ore side, affected by rising ocean freight rates and tight fuel supply in Guinea, major mines controlled shipments, and bauxite shipments declined significantly, with cost support bolstering expectations for higher ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventories in China remained at high levels, suppressing procurement demand, and the pricing standoff between buyers and sellers continued. Ore prices are expected to rise in a stepwise manner in the short term, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward.
Spot Prices:As of March 25, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,768.66 yuan/mt, up 10.83 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,797.37 yuan/mt, up 19.1 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,784.81 yuan/mt, up 10.62 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,784.81 yuan/mt, up 12.9 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,793.78 yuan/mt, up 2.91 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,768.39 yuan/mt, up 2.24 yuan/mt MoM.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on March 25, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 191.34 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract based on the latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:On March 25, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,274 mt from the previous trading day to 405,400 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 36,152 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Henan remained unchanged at 6,011 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged at 28,000 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained unchanged at 49,500 mt. Registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang increased by 6,274 mt from the previous trading day to 286,900 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of March 25, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $312/mt, the ocean freight rate was $34.55/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.91. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,786.44 yuan/mt, which was 17.78 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed.
Summary: Supply side, the industry operating rate declined by 0.6 percentage points last week, and operating capacity continued to decrease. Weekly alumina production decreased by 9,000 mt this week. Inventory side, as of last Thursday, alumina market inventory saw a buildup of 18,000 mt WoW, mainly due to a notable increase in warrant volumes. Aluminum smelters continued to draw down their own raw material inventories, which decreased by 6,000 mt this week. Overall raw material procurement sentiment was lukewarm, with some enterprises actively destocking after Chinese New Year. Finished product inventories at alumina refineries decreased by 8,000 mt, mainly due to a slight decline in alumina operating capacity. Port inventory edged down by 3,000 mt this week, but a large volume of imported alumina is reportedly set to arrive at ports, and inventory may shift back to buildup. Futures-linked inventory rose significantly — with futures at a substantial premium to spot, some alumina was registered as warrants. SHFE warrant inventory saw a buildup of approximately 57,000 mt WoW this week, while in-transit and platform inventory declined by 23,000 mt. Overall, national alumina inventory rebounded slightly this week, but the destocking trend since March has not yet reversed. According to an SMM survey, some new alumina projects in Guangxi are expected to enter trial production and official commissioning successively, and their commissioning progress warrants close attention going forward.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
