SMM Alumina Morning Comment 3.24
Futures:During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 3,065 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 3,067 yuan/mt and a low of 3,004 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,021 yuan/mt, down 54 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest decreased by 5,855 lots to 241,000 lots, as bulls and bears continued to wrestle in the market. Technically, the closing price was below MA5 (3,046.00), indicating some overhead resistance, but above MA10 (2,995.80) and MA30 (2,880), providing some bottom support. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (67.07) crossed above DEA (50.91), with the golden cross continuing and the histogram narrowing slightly to 32.32. Upward momentum persisted, and alumina futures are expected to be in the doldrums in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical impacts and commissioning plans for new capacity.
Industry Updates:
1) India's largest aluminum producer, Vedanta Aluminium, achieved a new emission reduction breakthrough at its Kodingamali bauxite mine by introducing electric loaders, reducing CO2 emissions from loading operations by 50%. The company is currently converting nearly half of its loading fleet from diesel to electric power, supporting its 2050 net-zero carbon emission target. At the Singaramm loading point, the original six diesel loaders were reconfigured to a "three diesel, three electric" setup, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 120 kg per hour.
Ore:As of March 23, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $67.69/mt, up $1.41/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $38.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $67/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $61.5/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $56.5/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF average price was at $50/mt, up $2.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Malaysia bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $60/mt, up $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghana bauxite CIF price was at $75.5/mt, up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $76.5/mt, up $3.5/mt WoW. Domestic ore side, prices remained under negotiation, with some regional differences in ore supply landscape. Imported ore side, affected by rising ocean freight rates and tight fuel supply in Guinea, major mines controlled shipments, and bauxite shipments declined significantly, with cost support bolstering expectations for higher ore prices. However, alumina refinery inventories in China remained at high levels, suppressing procurement demand, and price negotiations between buyers and sellers continued. Short-term ore prices are expected to rise in a stepwise manner, and the market should focus on the implementation of Guinea's "quota system" policy and ocean freight rate trends going forward.
Spot Price:As of March 23, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,755.82 yuan/mt, up 8.91 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,729.35 yuan/mt, up 16.08 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,783.79 yuan/mt, up 8.02 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,769.88 yuan/mt, up 9.75 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,790.00 yuan/mt, up 4.55 yuan/mt WoW. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,763.23 yuan/mt, up 1.91 yuan/mt WoW.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report:According to SMM data, on March 23, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 338.18 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract based on the latest transaction price at 11:30 AM.
Warrant Daily Report:On March 23, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,274 mt from the previous trading day to 405,400 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 36,152 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 6,011 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 28,000 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 49,500 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 6,274 mt from the previous trading day to 286,900 mt.
Markets Outside China:As of March 23, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $302/mt, the ocean freight rate was $34.55/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.93. This translated to a selling price at major domestic ports of approximately 2,714.39 yuan/mt, which was 41.43 yuan/mt below the alumina index price. According to the SMM model, the import window was open.
Summary: Supply side, the industry operating rate declined by 0.6 percentage points last week, and operating capacity continued to decrease. Weekly alumina production decreased by 9,000 mt this week. Inventory side, as of last Thursday, alumina market inventory saw a buildup of 18,000 mt WoW, mainly due to a notable increase in warrant volumes. Aluminum smelters continued to draw down their raw material inventories, which decreased by 6,000 mt this week. Overall raw material procurement sentiment was lukewarm, with some enterprises actively destocking after Chinese New Year. Alumina refinery finished product inventories decreased by 8,000 mt, mainly due to a slight decline in alumina operating capacity. Port inventory edged down by 3,000 mt this week, but a large volume of imported alumina is reportedly set to arrive at ports, and inventory may shift back to buildup. Futures-linked inventory rose significantly — with futures at a substantial premium to spot, some alumina was registered as warrants. SHFE warrant inventory saw a buildup of approximately 57,000 mt WoW, while in-transit and platform inventory declined by 23,000 mt. Overall, national alumina inventory rebounded slightly this week, but the destocking trend since March has not yet reversed. According to the SMM survey, some new alumina projects in Guangxi are expected to successively enter trial production and formal commissioning, and their commissioning progress warrants close attention going forward.
[Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]
