26. April 2026
As of April 23, 2026 by Florian Grummes
The precious metals initially continued their recovery from the sell-off lows of March 23. Silver in particular showed strength and briefly recaptured the 50-day line ($81.97) last week. On Friday, the price reached $83.05, almost exactly the 61.8% retracement of the previous downward movement. Since then, however, the silver price has fallen significantly again by around 10.6%.
The gold price, on the other hand, struggled somewhat, as the slightly declining 50-day line ($4,974) was only briefly reached intraday. This week, gold prices have already declined by around $200. Overall, the corrective pattern thus remains intact and the healthy consolidation in the precious metals sector that began at the end of January continues.
Physical Demand and China Support Silver Market
Shanghai vs. Western Silver Spot Prices, as of April 23, 2026. © https://metalcharts.org/shanghai
Nevertheless, the situation in the silver market remains tense, as the split between the Western paper market and the physical market in Asia persists. While inventories in China are rebuilding, the premium on physical silver there currently stands at around 15%.
Combined Chinese Silver Inventories, as of April 21, 2026. © Inproved, Hugo Pascal
Combined, the inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange have reached a three-month high of 1,062 tons or 34.1 million ounces.
At the same time, fundamental demand remains robust. For 2026, the Silver Institute expects industrial silver demand to decline by 3% to 639.6 million ounces, but industry—particularly the solar sector—remains the backbone of the silver market at 58% of total demand.
Rising prices, however, impose limits on this development: at significantly higher prices, silver becomes an increasingly significant cost factor in solar applications, which is why manufacturers are increasingly turning to thrifting and partially to copper. This is less an abrupt strategic shift in response to rising prices, but rather an expression of the ongoing margin pressure in an industry that was already suffering from low prices and overcapacity.
China imports more silver than ever before in March, as of April 22, 2026. © The Kobeissi Letter
Nevertheless, China demonstrates remarkable absorption capacity for silver. Imports surged again in March, driven both by retail demand for smaller bars and by solar manufacturers who brought forward their purchases ahead of the elimination of export tax rebates. This speaks more to continued strong real demand than to waning market attractiveness.
In addition, an unstable geopolitical and macroeconomic environment should support silver over the long term. Record-high global debt, rising interest burdens, and ongoing fiscal tensions increase the attractiveness of hard assets, while a foreseeable global arms race could further boost physical silver demand.
In the short term, silver remains volatile and caught in a healthy correction, but structurally and fundamentally, everything suggests that periods of weakness will attract new buying interest and the overarching uptrend will resume sooner or later.
Silver in USD – Failed at 61.8% Retracement and 50-Day Line
Silver in US Dollars, Daily Chart as of April 23, 2026. © GOLD.DE
Indeed, the silver price managed the hoped-for recovery over the past three weeks up to the 50-day line ($78.60). With a high of $83.05, this average was even clearly exceeded temporarily and the important 61.8% retracement of the previous downward movement was completed. Ultimately, however, the bulls were rather abruptly halted and pushed back here, so that silver fell back to as low as $74.24 on Thursday.
The daily stochastic has generated a new sell signal through this pullback, and the overall picture also continues to suggest a continuation of the healthy correction. So far, this is clearly running above the dynamically rising 200-day line ($61.68). However, we expect that the widely watched average will want to meet the silver price by early summer.
A pullback to the lower Bollinger Band ($68.50) would currently not be sufficient for this. Therefore, the correction either needs significantly more time, allowing the 200-day line to gain more ground in the meantime, or there will be another, sharper downward wave.
Since May is seasonally rather weak in the precious metals sector, we remain cautious and currently see no reason for hasty action. As long as another geopolitical drama is avoided, the silver price should initially move in a sideways range between $70 and $80.
Conclusion: Silver – Healthy Correction Continues
The ongoing correction in the silver market can so far be classified as constructive and does not represent an overarching trend reversal. While technical factors such as the failure at the 50-day line and new sell signals create headwinds in the short to medium term, the corrective movement overall remains orderly above key support levels such as the rising 200-day line, despite strong fluctuations.
Thus, the overarching picture remains intact, even though the correction could drag on. In a worst-case scenario, another downward wave could lead to a test of the breakout zone between $45 and $55.
At the same time, the fundamental side continues to provide support: robust physical demand, particularly from Asia, as well as structural factors such as geopolitical tensions and high global debt clearly point to persistently high interest in silver. Against this backdrop, periods of weakness are likely to be increasingly perceived as entry opportunities. In the short term, ongoing volatility and sideways movement between $70 and $80 can be expected, but in the medium and especially long term, the arguments favor a continuation of the overarching uptrend.
Source：https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-healthy-correction-after-strong-rally/
