SMM April 27 News:
Metals market:
As of last Friday's overnight close, base metals generally rose across domestic and overseas markets, with only LME copper, LME aluminum, SHFE copper, and SHFE aluminum declining together. SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, LME aluminum fell 0.19%, LME copper fell 0.16%, and SHFE copper fell 0.03%. The remaining metals all rose, with SHFE nickel leading the gains at 2.68%, LME nickel up 1.86%, and the rest rising less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 2.48%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.43%.
Last Friday's overnight session saw ferrous metals generally rise, with iron ore being the only decliner, falling 0.19%. Stainless steel rose 2.31%, while the remaining metals fluctuated slightly. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.63% and coke rose 0.46%.
Precious metals last Friday overnight: COMEX gold rose 0.03%, but fell 3.16% on the week, ending a three-week winning streak. COMEX silver rose 0.24%, but fell 7.52% on the week, ending a four-week winning streak. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.26%, down 2.24% on the week, and SHFE silver rose 0.28%, down 5.86% on the week.
Market closing data as of 8:24 AM on April 25, last Friday's overnight session:
Macro Front
China:
[State Council Executive Meeting: Approved the "Regulations on the Procedures for the Formulation of Administrative Regulations (Revised Draft)"]Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting noted that the scientific formulation of administrative regulations is a fundamental task in comprehensively governing the country according to law. Efforts should be made to earnestly implement the "Regulations on the Procedures for the Formulation of Administrative Regulations," adhere to scientific, democratic, and law-based legislation, adapt to changes in economic and social development, promptly conduct legislative research, and carry out work on project applications, assessment and verification, drafting, and legislative review. Supporting regulations should be improved and refined, and legislative quality and efficiency should be continuously enhanced to provide necessary rule-of-law safeguards for reform and development. (Jin10 Data APP)
To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on April 27, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan MLF operations through fixed-quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning bid methods, with a maturity of one year.
US dollar:
As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.53, but rose 0.32% on the week, rebounding after three consecutive weeks of decline. According to ABC, the US Department of Justice was expected to drop the criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell as early as April 24. Washington, D.C. prosecutor Pirro stated that she was terminating the (criminal) investigation into the renovation costs of the Fed building, but requested the Fed Inspector General to review the Fed's costs. Pirro said she would not hesitate to reopen the investigation into Powell if necessary. (Wallstreetcn)
White House spokesperson Kush Desai issued a statement on X: "The White House continues to believe, as it has, that the Senate will swiftly confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman." He added that regarding the cost overruns on the Fed building renovation project, the Fed Inspector General's office "has stronger authority and is therefore best suited to thoroughly investigate this matter." (Wallstreetcn)
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he would not run for public office after completing his current role, but also said he would not rule out accepting an offer to serve as Fed Chairman in the future. Regarding running for president or any other elected office, Bessent said: "I would take that option off the table... I'm going to be the Colin Powell of this administration." On potentially serving as Fed Chairman in the future, he said: "I wouldn't say no." He explained: "It doesn't require an election. You can shape the economy, and it's an institution." (Wallstreetcn)
According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, with a 99.5% probability of holding rates unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 5.1%, with a 94.4% probability of holding rates unchanged and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike.
On the macro front:
This week from China, data to be released include China's year-to-date profits of major industrial enterprises year-on-year for March, China's profits of major industrial enterprises year-on-year for March, China's official manufacturing PMI for April, and China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI for April. From the US, data to be released include the US Fed interest rate decision as of April 29, the US April Dallas Fed business activity index, the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA house price index month-on-month, the US February S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted home price index year-on-year, the US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, the US April Richmond Fed manufacturing index, the US March annualized housing starts, the US March durable goods orders month-on-month, the US March building permits, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, the US March core PCE price index year-on-year, the US March personal spending month-on-month, the US Q1 employment cost index quarter-on-quarter, the US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary reading, the US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary reading, the US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary reading, the US March core PCE price index month-on-month, the US April Chicago PMI, the US March Conference Board leading indicators month-on-month, the US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI final reading, and the US April ISM manufacturing PMI. From the eurozone, data to be released include the eurozone April industrial confidence index, the eurozone April economic sentiment index, the eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary reading, the eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary reading, the eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary reading, the eurozone March unemployment rate, the ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, and the ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30. From Germany, data to be released include the Germany May GfK consumer confidence index, the Germany April CPI month-on-month preliminary reading, the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, the Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, and the Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary reading. From the UK, data to be released include the UK April CBI retail sales balance, the UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, the UK April Nationwide house price index month-on-month, the UK April manufacturing PMI final reading, and the UK March Bank of England mortgage approvals. From Switzerland, data to be released include the Switzerland April ZEW investor confidence index, the Switzerland April KOF leading economic indicator, and the Switzerland March real retail sales year-on-year. From Japan, data to be released include the Japan March unemployment rate and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also to be released are the France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary reading, the France April CPI month-on-month preliminary reading, the Australia March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29, and the Canada February GDP month-on-month.
On April 27, 600 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 500 million yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations will mature in China. On April 30 at 2:00 AM, the US Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and outlook report. The Bank of England will release its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report, and Bank of England Governor Bailey will hold a monetary policy press conference.
Crude oil:
As of last Friday's overnight close, oil prices in the two markets showed mixed performance. WTI fell 1.01% while Brent rose 0.77%. On a weekly basis, WTI surged 14.88% and Brent surged 17.15%. The sharp weekly gains in crude oil were mainly driven by market concerns over supply disruptions. Meanwhile, expectations that the US and Iran might restart peace negotiations offered the possibility of easing tight supply.
The Trump administration extended the Jones Act-related shipping waiver by 90 days, aimed at facilitating the transportation of oil, fuel, and fertilizers within the US. The decision extended the existing waiver, originally set to expire on May 17, by approximately three months, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport cargo between US ports until mid-August. Normally, under the 1920 Jones Act, goods transported by water between US domestic ports must be carried on US-flagged, US-built, and US-owned vessels. Trump's waiver temporarily lifted these restrictions for coal, crude oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas, natural gas condensates, fertilizers, and other energy derivatives. (Jin10 Data APP)
Iran continued loading millions of barrels of oil onto supertankers, although this activity would only become increasingly difficult if the US continued to block Tehran's shipping. Satellite images taken on Monday showed a giant crude oil carrier with a capacity of approximately 2 million barrels docked at Kharg Island's terminal. Images taken the previous Saturday showed no vessels docked at Kharg Island at that time. With no evidence that large volumes of oil had bypassed the US blockade, Iran was likely simply loading crude onto available vessels in the region. The US stated that its maritime barrier in the Sea of Oman had blocked nearly 30 Iranian vessels, preventing Iranian crude from reaching clients. As the Trump administration sought to cut Iran's vital oil revenues, market observers were looking for evidence of how long Tehran could sustain its oil production. (Jin10 Data APP)
Saudi Arabia significantly increased crude oil exports through its Red Sea terminals, but had not yet stabilized flows through this alternative route at target levels. Data showed that in the first three weeks of April, the daily average volume of crude shipped from Yanbu port to overseas destinations was approximately 4 million barrels, roughly five times the level before the Iran conflict erupted, but still only about 80% of Riyadh's target. After Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in late February, the oil market had been closely monitoring oil shipments from Saudi Arabia's west coast terminals. Yanbu port is currently the largest single alternative to the strait blockade for the oil industry. The east-west pipeline can transport 7 million barrels per day of crude from oil fields near Saudi Arabia's Persian Gulf coast to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, of which approximately 2 million barrels are used domestically. (Jin10 Data APP)
A Dallas Fed survey showed that as the ongoing conflict involving Iran disrupted global supply and pushed up crude oil and fuel prices, US oil industry executives expected domestic production to rise. The survey collected data from 120 oil and natural gas companies between April 15-20, including 78 exploration and production companies and 42 oilfield services companies. The survey showed that 43% of respondents expected US crude oil production to increase by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year due to the Iran war. This expectation differed from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast, which estimated US crude oil production would decrease by 70,000 barrels in 2026. About two-thirds of respondents believed that at least 90% of the currently shut-in Persian Gulf crude oil would eventually return to the market. When asked when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal levels, 20% of respondents said next month, 39% said August, and the rest said November or later. Most executives expected transportation costs in the Persian Gulf region to rise after the conflict ends, with more than one-third indicating costs would increase by $2-4 per barrel. (Jin10 Data APP)
![Aluminum Prices Dropped Sharply, Spot Market Remained Weak [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ifCaw20251217171652.jpg)
![Copper Prices Center Shifted Upward, Downstream Buyers Mainly Made Just-in-Time Procurement [SMM North China Spot Copper]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/eFYDl20251217171712.jpg)
