La pénurie de certificats de warrants a fait passer les primes du cuivre au comptant à Shanghai d'une décote à une prime

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, from the perspective of invoice structure, the shortage of invoices dated this month at the domestic trade port intensified intraday, with suppliers generally raising their offer prices for cargoes with invoices dated this month, pushing SHFE copper spot premiums from discounts to premiums. Meanwhile, the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and cargoes with invoices dated next month widened further, reflecting the continued disruption of the periodic invoice shortage on spot pricing. Affected by this, some downstream enterprises preferred to purchase directly from smelters to secure the issuance of invoices dated this month. Demand side, copper prices remain at elevated levels, and downstream purchasing has generally become cautious, dominated by rigid demand with limited willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the Labour Day holiday falls next week, and some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, which may lead to a certain increase in purchasing, providing periodic support for spot premiums. Overall, under the combined effects of a tight invoice structure, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week.

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Freeport-McMoRan a abaissé ses prévisions de production de cuivre pour 2026 en raison d'une reprise plus lente à sa mine de Grasberg, ne prévoyant désormais qu'un taux de récupération de 65 %, ce qui réduit considérablement les attentes en matière d'offre mondiale.