As of: April 16, 2026, by Florian Grummes
Starting from the panic low of $4,099 on March 23, the gold price has slowly but steadily worked its way upward over the past four weeks. Even though momentum is gradually fading and geopolitical tensions continue to act as a disruptive factor, the persistence of the recovery movement remains remarkable. Higher price targets in the range between $4,900 and $5,100 remain active and could be reached soon.
Iran conflict threatens China’s oil supply, April 15, 2026. © Giacomo Prandelli
Despite a ceasefire and a reasonably stable “paper oil price,” the conflict between the USA/Israel and Iran is by no means over. Rather, the war has exposed tectonic tension in the global energy system. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz – through which around one-fifth of the world’s traded crude oil is transported – represents the most serious test for oil supplies in decades. Although the first tankers have started moving again, uncertainty remains.
While the head of the IEA warns of further price increases and speaks of “systemic bottlenecks,” the Western and American futures markets have so far shown no real crisis awareness. Inventory levels in the USA are even increasing, an astonishing paradox in the middle of a war. The fact that the market shows no panic despite the war scenario and blockade seems less like composure – and more like denial.
The War for Oil and Control
China accounts for 90% of Iranian oil exports, April 15, 2026. ©World Visualized
The actual strategic focus has long since shifted to the East. China’s almost complete dependence on Iranian and Gulf oil has placed Beijing in a vulnerable position. At the same time, until recently, about 90% of Iranian crude oil exports flowed into Chinese refineries – an energy policy one-way street that has been directly targeted by the US naval blockade.
In the upcoming Xi-Trump summit, oil is therefore likely to become the dominant topic behind the diplomatic facade of “trade talks.” Washington controls the sea route through which China’s lifeline flows, while Beijing sits on the side of the global table that holds the West’s hand regarding high-tech metals. Geopolitical energy dependence and metallic counter-dependence have now become two sides of the same weapon.
Metals as a Counterweight to Energy
It is precisely there that the world is currently engaged in a silent commodity war: China not only controls, for example, around 80% of global tungsten production and processing, but is increasingly using this dominance offensively. Since 2025, export controls have applied to dozens of tungsten products, hitting Western supply chains hard. Due to its extremely high melting point (3,422°C), tungsten is a central and indispensable metal for arms production, precision manufacturing, and high-tech alloys – its scarcity is driving up costs for defense programs and industrial suppliers. While oil is becoming a geopolitical lever for the USA, China is making its countermove with metals and rare earths.
For the precious metals gold and silver, this results in a dual driver: geopolitical uncertainty and structural commodity scarcity. Both factors strengthen their role as the ultimate, non-political reserve in an increasingly politicized commodity world.
Gold – Recovery to approx. $4,920, then next setback
Gold in US dollars, daily chart from April 16, 2026. © GOLD.DE
Since the new gold all-time high of $5,602 on January 29, the gold price has been in a decidedly volatile and technically demanding correction phase, which temporarily intensified dramatically during the Iran conflict. In the past four weeks, however, the gold market has managed a noticeable recovery, which has gradually led the price back into more stable waters.
From Panic Low to Persistent Recovery
After several unsuccessful attempts, the bulls were able to overcome the first decisive hurdle at the 38.2% retracement at around $4,600 two weeks ago. This unlocked further upside potential up to the range between $4,900 and $5,100.
Nevertheless, the rise has been sluggish so far: the dynamic-bullish temperament that dominated in December and January has faded significantly and given way to a cautious, less sustainable environment. Nonetheless, the overall chart pattern remains intact – the long-term uptrend and thus the secular bull market are not at risk despite the intermediate correction.
The Recovery and Its Limits
From a technical perspective, the daily stochastics have now reached the overbought zone. Together with the seasonally weaker phase (from April/May), there is much to suggest an imminent top formation and a subsequent correction wave. Ideally, the gold price could first run up to the 50-day line at $4,897, the 61.8% retracement at $4,915, and the upper Bollinger Band around $4,917.
The psychologically significant $5,000 threshold also exerts a certain attraction. However, a sustainable breakout above $4,920 would require an exceptionally strong market condition, in which the bulls would have to push the upper Bollinger Band upward in a significantly overbought state for several consecutive days. This cannot be ruled out, but the probability of it is currently rather limited.
Should the Iran crisis flare up again, however, the fragile fabric of trust in the financial markets could quickly come under pressure once more. In view of this global uncertainty and the likely prolonged breather/correction in precious metals, we are maintaining an increased liquidity ratio and waiting patiently for more attractive entry levels. Historically, the months of May to July often bring a setback, so a favorable buying opportunity could arise again in early or high summer.
Overall, the bulls remain in control above $4,600; below that, room opens up for setbacks to at least the area around $4,400. Furthermore, we expect another test of the 200-day line ($4,203) as a second leg, so to speak.
Our absolute worst-case scenario envisions a possible correction low or trend reversal in the range between $3,400 and $3,600 later in the year.
However, a correction over time is more likely, meaning a broad sideways movement between $4,200 and $5,200.
Conclusion: Gold as the Ultimate Non-Political Money in a Politicized Commodity World
In a world where oil is weaponized and “critical metals” or “rare earths” become a geopolitical counterweight, gold and silver retain their unique role as the only reliable, non-political reserves. They remain the last true constants – independent of central banks, sanctions, and military conflicts. While nations increasingly use commodities as an instrument of power and target supply chains as leverage, precious metals embody the monetary memory of a global economy that is now almost exclusively politically controlled.
Every setback is therefore not a break, but an invitation: to secure liquidity, maintain patience, and wait for that moment when fundamental value becomes visible again.
The current recovery of the gold price from $4,099 to nearly $4,900 demonstrates this fundamental strength once again. It is not primarily fueled by chart-technical momentum, but by the growing realization that the global economy is entering a phase of structural commodity scarcity and geopolitical fragmentation. Whether it is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese export controls on tungsten, fiscal irresponsibility and geopolitical arrogance in the USA, or China’s high dependence on Iranian oil: all these developments underscore the vulnerability of the “paper system” and strengthen the demand for real, physical stores of value.
Technically, the gold price is in a healthy but necessary breather. The recovery movement from the panic sell-off is still ongoing. But the overbought stochastics, strong resistance between $4,900 and $5,000, and the seasonally weak phase from May to July suggest another correction wave. This should not be misunderstood as weakness, but as a healthy consolidation in an intact secular bull market. Far-sighted investors are therefore using the current phase to build up liquidity and wait for significantly more attractive entry levels (ideally toward 4,400, 4,200, or below).
For those who understand gold not just as an object of speculation but as a strategic hedge, the current situation offers a rare opportunity. It is not the quick profit, but patient positioning in an environment of increasing systemic risks that will pay off. Gold is no longer a momentum trade – it is the final safety net in a world that has discovered its own dependencies as weapons.
Those who keep their nerves and their liquidity now will very likely be able to buy in the coming months at conditions that are exceptionally attractive in the long term.
Source：https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-between-geopolitical-storm-and-technical-patience/
