Rising Ore Prices Support Nickel Market, Steel Mills Increase Indicative Prices Amid Gradual Recovery

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Following a continuous six-month upward trajectory that began in December 2025, fueled by Indonesia's new HPM nickel ore pricing formula and tight mining quotas, Indonesian stainless steel export offers have finally experienced their first correction. On May 19, 2026, the leading Indonesian stainless steel mill reduced its export quotations by USD30/mt. Industry experts note that while high nickel ore and NPI costs provided a solid floor for months, persistent weakness in downstream manufacturing demand across Chinese Taiwan and Europe has ultimately forced mills to compromise, snapping the half-year price surge.

[SMM Nickel Flash] On May 18, futures continued to decline, and market pessimism spread. Upstream suppliers mostly maintained high offer prices, but actual transactions were scarce, with some softening in quoted prices. Downstream steel mills adopted a more cautious purchasing stance, mostly referencing steel scrap price ratios, with mainstream intended bids concentrated at 1120-1130 yuan/nickel unit, showing a clear divergence from upstream offers. Under the short-term downward trend, both upstream and downstream pricing sentiment remained cautious, further suppressing spot transaction activity.