Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Leaving the Tin Market Stuck in Dilemma [SMM Tin Midday Commentary]

On March 12, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated around the 390,000-yuan/mt level in the morning and closed at 387,740 yuan/mt, down 2.34. On the external market, LME three-month tin consolidated in line with SHFE and was last reported at $49,250/mt, down 1.31.

Recently, tin prices have fluctuated rangebound, with bullish and bearish factors intertwined and leaving the market caught in a dilemma. Resistance came from geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressure, while support stemmed from improving expectations for long-term tin consumption. Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, power grid and computing network construction under the “six networks” initiative indicated accelerated implementation of infrastructure in China. Combined with supply-side disruptions, this provided bottom support for prices. With no clear market trend recently, tin prices may gradually return to being driven by actual industrial transactions and consumption, and close attention should be paid to the continued evolution of the macro situation.

Spot side, trading was relatively mediocre this morning. When prices hovered at high levels earlier, replenishment and stockpiling pressure across the market was relatively heavy, and sentiment remained tense. When prices loosened and fell to around 380,000 at the beginning of this month, many downstream and end-user enterprises followed up. Futures mostly fluctuated today and did not break below the decline seen at the start of the month, so most downstream enterprises chose to digest inventories. End-use demand recovered from February, and order follow-up at the beginning of the month was moderate, but overall demand was still lower than in the same period of previous years.

Short term, market sentiment showed no clear trend, and tin prices may gradually tilt toward actual industrial transactions and consumption. Attention should be paid to the pace of end-use demand recovery, the speed of inventory digestion, and further developments outside China.