Institutions Warned of Shortage Risks in the Global Copper Market, and Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Continued Their Uptrend [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,104.5/mt, then its center moved lower to a low of $13,003.5/mt. It then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $13,096.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $12,919/mt, up 1.37%. Trading volume fell by 9,254 lots from the previous trading day to 22,000 lots, while open interest increased by 1,035 lots from the previous trading day to 304,000 lots, mainly reflecting long position buildup overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 101,430 yuan/mt. After hitting a low of 101,200 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, it hovered at highs, reached a high of 101,930 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed at 101,860 yuan/mt, up 0.7%. Trading volume dropped by 88,000 lots from the previous trading day to 28,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,780 lots from the previous trading day to 193,000 lots, mainly reflecting short position reduction overall.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News:
(1) Amid mine production disruptions and the impact of US tariff policies, the global copper metal market is facing severe supply is tight, with multiple institutions warning that shortage risks are approaching. According to a study by S&P Global in January this year, by 2040, the global copper market will face a supply gap of 10 million mt, while demand is expected to surge to 42 million mt, about 50% higher than current levels. Meanwhile, ING expected that, due to existing supply constraints in the market, following a refined copper deficit of 200,000 mt in 2025, the deficit will expand to 600,000 mt in 2026.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On March 10, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2603 contract were quoted at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to premiums of 40 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at parity. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2603 contract rose and then dropped back slightly. It opened at 100,910 yuan/mt, then climbed all the way to a high of 101,620 yuan/mt before pulling back slightly, and closed at 101,200 yuan/mt. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts was 380-300 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for the SHFE copper current-month contract was in a loss range of 440-350 yuan/mt. As the delivery period approached, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue narrowing steadily. From the market structure perspective, the widening inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts significantly strengthened suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouse. In particular, inventory in Jiangsu mainly consisted of warrants, and suppliers tended to make delivery rather than sell in the spot market, resulting in persistently tight circulating spot supply, while spot premiums in Jiangsu were slightly higher than those in Shanghai. Affected by this, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm during the day, and quotes in the second trading session were raised slightly, making procurement more difficult for some downstream enterprises. Looking ahead to today, under the dominance of delivery logic, spot premiums in Shanghai are expected to maintain the current situation.
(2) Guangdong: On March 10, Guangdong spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at premiums of 120 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt; discounts of 50 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 60 yuan/mt; and discounts of 110 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,335 yuan/mt, up 1,910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,190 yuan/mt, up 1,925 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
(3) Imported copper: On March 10, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day; the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day; and the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was up $2/mt from the previous trading day, with quotations referring to cargoes expected to arrive from mid-to-late March to early April.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on March 10, the futures closing price was 101,200 yuan/mt, up 1,370 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were 0 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 10, copper scrap prices rose 1,200 yuan/mt MoM, the copper scrap sales sentiment index climbed to 2.34, and the purchasing index fell to 2.38. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,200 yuan/mt, up 96 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 570 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices saw wild swings over the past two days, leading to relatively chaotic pricing in the copper scrap market. Suppliers sold off cargoes at high prices, but downstream purchase willingness was average, and overall intraday transactions were mediocre.
Price: On the macro front, Trump released signals of negotiations, but Iran said its new supreme leader would not negotiate with him. The market weighed the conflicting messages between the US and Iran, and copper prices showed a fluctuating trend. In addition, the US temporarily waived some oil-related sanctions, easing inflation concerns and supporting copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, domestic copper and imported cargoes remained abundantly available; on the demand side, purchasing sentiment was restrained by rising copper prices. Overall, amid uncertainty over geopolitical risks, copper prices were expected to hold up well in a fluctuating range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]