Silicon Metal Prices Fluctuated, Polysilicon Price Sentiment Weakened [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM News on March 5:Silicon metal:This week, the silicon metal market fluctuated significantly under the influence of news, falling first and then rising. As of March 5, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, with the transaction center moving down WoW; some suppliers quoted at 9,200 yuan/mt. 3303# silicon was at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt, flat WoW. The futures market also fell first and then rose, with large fluctuations; the weekly low was 8,105 yuan/mt and the high was 8,630 yuan/mt, and it closed on Thursday at 8,565 yuan/mt. Expectations for Xinjiang electricity prices and news such as environmental protection caused disturbances, and futures prices recovered from the bottom. As futures prices rose, trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market raised their quotes accordingly; silicon enterprises kept quotes steady or raised them by 100 yuan/mt. Low-priced supply in the market shifted from spot-futures traders to silicon enterprises, and downstream users purchased on demand, choosing lower-priced offers. On the export side, after the Chinese New Year, export spot cargo transactions were active, and export shipment activity in the Tianjin area increased.

Demand side, polysilicon enterprises’ weekly operating rate was basically stable, and next week’s operating rate was also expected to remain mainly stable. Attention should be paid to recent transaction conditions for silicon powder orders. Silicone enterprises’ weekly operating rate increased; affected by rising methanol prices, silicone raw material costs edged up, with DMC prices at 14,000-14,300 yuan/mt. Silicone enterprises’ profits were moderate, and next week’s operating rate was expected to remain mainly stable. Aluminum alloy enterprises’ weekly operating rate continued to increase; secondary aluminum enterprises steadily advanced production resumptions after the holiday, and next week’s operating rate was set to continue rebounding, gradually returning toward normal pre-holiday levels.

Supply side, some capacity in Xinjiang resumed production, increasing supply, while operating rates in other regions were basically stable. With production release, the silicon metal operating rate was set to continue increasing next week. After the holiday, both supply and demand for silicon metal increased; large plants partially resumed production after the holiday, and the supply side was relatively loose. Supply pressure for the month was lower than in January, and there were no highlights on the demand side for now, so silicon metal prices were mainly expected to fluctuate.

Polysilicon:This week, the polysilicon price index was 48.37 yuan/kg; N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 45-53 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 43-45 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices fell sharply this week, and bearish market sentiment gradually strengthened. After the holiday, downstream wafer prices continued to decline, and related meetings and cost-setting provided limited price support. Under bearish sentiment and their own inventory pressure, polysilicon plants began to proactively cut prices. Currently, bearish sentiment remains strong, and some high-priced resources are expected to still have downside room.

Wafer:This week, wafer prices hit bottom and declined. N-type 183 wafers were at 1.05-1.08 yuan/piece, 210R wafers were quoted at 1.13-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers were quoted at 1.35-1.38 yuan/piece. Wafer prices fell this week, with 210R seeing the largest overall decline at the low end due to relatively high inventory. As of now, this price range includes actual transaction prices of wafer enterprises, but does not include intended purchase prices of battery enterprises. The primary reason for the wafer price decline this week was the drop in raw material costs. After losing policy support, polysilicon prices plunged sharply on reduced volumes, and wafer enterprises pushed to the limit; what they are focusing on is, in the next major cycle, which companies have stockpiled low-priced polysilicon that can be used for production—this will also become the core of the game. In addition, wafer enterprises’ overproduction and inventory buildup from January to February was another key reason prices lost support, indirectly indicating that competition for market share among players continued. In March, as battery enterprises gradually ramped up production, the wafer segment shifted to destocking.
 

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