The Most-Traded BC Copper Contract Closed Down 1.47%, a Stronger US Dollar Index Put Copper Prices Under Pressure [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 91,780 yuan/mt. It touched a high of 91,970 yuan/mt early in the session, then the center moved lower throughout the day, hitting bottom at 89,770 yuan/mt near the close. The center of copper prices then rose, and it finally closed at 90,560 yuan/mt, down 1.47%. Open interest reached 5,808 lots, an increase of 277 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 9,121 lots, down 1,051 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the US-Iran situation continued to deteriorate, with divergent statements emerging within the US side. The escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East lifted risk-off sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. The US-Iran conflict also triggered market concerns over US inflation, reducing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the US Fed, which also weighed on copper prices. Fundamentally, domestically produced copper and previously price-locked imported supplies continued to arrive, leaving overall market availability ample. Demand side, downstream enterprises continued to advance work and production resumptions, and purchasing sentiment rebounded, but the overall pace of recovery remained slow.

The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 102,100 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 90,560 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 102,333 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was -233 yuan/mt. The spread remained in backwardation and narrowed from the previous day.