Nonferrous Metals Mostly Declined, LME Zinc Center Shifted Lower [SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary]

Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes for February 13

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,416.5/mt. After opening, it fluctuated upward to a high of $3,449/mt, then traded with wide swings around the daily average line. Approaching the close, LME zinc quickly pulled back, touched a low of $3,356.5/mt, and maintained a fluctuating trend, finally closing down at $3,381.5/mt, down $36.5/mt, a decrease of 1.07%. Trading volume decreased to 9,738 lots, and open interest decreased by 7,690 lots to 228,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,725 yuan/mt. After opening, it fluctuated above the daily average line, reaching a high of 24,765 yuan/mt during the session. Subsequently, SHFE zinc quickly pulled back, touching a low of 24,420 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled down at 24,500 yuan/mt, down 170 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.69%. Trading volume decreased to 25,879 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,347 lots to 80,737 lots.

Macro: Trump: The US "must" reach a deal with Iran; Trump acknowledges preparing to deploy a second carrier strike group to the Middle East; Besant "softens": Supports Senate taking over the Powell investigation; IEA lowers its 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecast; Russian internal memo mentions returning to the US dollar system; National Film Administration and Ministry of Commerce organize "Film+" comprehensive consumption pilot; China's new wind and solar power installations hit a record high again in 2025; China imposes countervailing duties on certain dairy products imported from the EU.

Spot Market:

Shanghai: Yesterday, the refined zinc purchasing sentiment in Shanghai was 1.76, and the shipment sentiment was 1.98. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, few traders offered quotes for shipments in the Shanghai market yesterday. With zinc futures prices strengthening and downstream players mostly on holiday, there was almost no inquiry interest. Market trading was sluggish, and zinc ingot inventory continued to accumulate.

Guangdong: Yesterday, the refined zinc purchasing sentiment in Guangdong was 1.51, and the sales sentiment was 1.89. Approaching the holiday, market offers have been scarce recently, while there were almost no purchases in the market. Spot transactions were sluggish, and premiums and discounts declined.

Tianjin: Yesterday, the refined zinc purchasing sentiment in Tianjin was 1.52, and the shipment sentiment was 1.73. Yesterday, zinc prices mainly fluctuated. Downstream players were mostly on holiday, and trader quotes saw no transactions. The overall market was relatively quiet.

Ningbo: Yesterday, there were almost no traders shipping goods in Ningbo. The overall market atmosphere was thick with the holiday spirit. Additionally, with zinc futures prices strengthening, almost no downstream inquiries or purchases were seen. There were virtually no spot transactions in the market.

Social Inventory: On February 11, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,750 mt to 103,500 mt, a decrease of 1.66%. According to SMM communication, as of February 12, domestic inventory increased.

Zinc Price Outlook: Overnight, LME zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with support provided by the 10-day moving average below. Although the destocking trend for LME zinc ingot inventory has not stopped, influenced by selling pressure in other financial markets, precious metals and non-ferrous metals generally declined, and the LME zinc price center consequently moved lower. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with the 20-day moving average forming resistance overhead. On the fundamentals side, as the Chinese New Year approaches, downstream enterprises have largely halted operations, and social inventory of zinc ingot continues to accumulate, weakening support for zinc prices. Coupled with the drag from LME trends, SHFE zinc also declined during the night session.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.