SMM Feb. 12:
SHFE aluminum 2602 fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the price center rising from the previous trading day. Affected by the approaching Chinese New Year, overall market trading sentiment was weak, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at the average price to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the shipment sentiment index in the east China market was 2.21, down 0.08 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.33, up 0.04 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 23,350 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 160 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 220 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract.
Trading in the central China market remained sluggish today. As the Chinese New Year approaches, pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream processing enterprises has basically ended, with only minimal just-in-time procurement. Major suppliers have also gradually entered the Chinese New Year break, leading to limited spot aluminum availability in the market. However, some traders bought the dip and stockpiled, driving transaction prices higher. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a premium of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt against the central China price.
Today, the shipment sentiment index in the central China market was 2.43, down 0.14 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.09, down 0.05 WoW. SMM central China price closed at 23,260 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 250 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; at a discount of 310 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -90 yuan/mt, narrowing 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.
Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption areas increased by 28,500 mt WoW, with all three regions showing inventory buildup. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress end-use demand, coupled with the impact of the Chinese New Year break on downstream sectors. Aluminum ingots still face inventory buildup risks, and spot premiums/discounts are expected to remain under pressure.
