【SMM Acier】L'échéance du CBAM de l'UE déclenche une vague de projets d'acier DRI à hydrogène vert avant le lancement de 2026

Le tableau suivant présente l'évolution des métaux ferreux et non ferreux sur le SHFE et le DCE au 6 novembre 2026.

[SMM Analysis] Futures Drive Finished Steel and Raw Material Prices Up; Stainless Steel Raw Materials Diverge While Profits Hold Steady This week, stainless steel finished products and various raw materials rose in tandem, with steel mill profits remaining generally stable. Based on 304 cold-rolled calculations, the profit margin from current raw material accounting recovered to 2.47%, while the profit margin from inventory raw material accounting stood at 2.88%. The nickel pig iron segment halted losses and strengthened this week. Driven by higher SS futures, stainless steel finished product prices rose and steel mill profit margins expanded, boosting market sentiment for NPI and increasing inquiries. Coupled with market talk that Indonesia's nickel ore quotas may be further tightened next year, upstream smelters and traders adopted a hold-back-from-selling stance, pushing high-grade NPI prices higher. As of Friday, the delivered duty-paid price of Indonesian high-grade NPI with 10-12% nickel content in China rose by 9.5 yuan per nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap also halted losses and strengthened. The rise in SS futures lifted finished products and high-grade NPI, steel mills raised their scrap procurement prices, and scrap quotes followed higher. However, this round of gains was driven more by expectations in futures, while the reverse invoicing policy continued to constrain goods circulation. Actual procurement volumes at steel mills remained limited, and market trading stayed sluggish. The cost advantage of stainless steel scrap over high-grade NPI provided bottom support, but end-use demand has yet to show substantial improvement, and prices are likely to consolidate on a strong note in the short term. As of Friday, the tax-exclusive price of mainstream 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 450 yuan/mt. Chrome-related raw materials diverged from nickel-related materials and scrap, extending their weak downward trend. South African ferrochrome enterprises gradually resumed production, and with China's ferrochrome market already in oversupply, destocking pressure is expected to increase further going forward. Meanwhile, chrome ore prices pulled back, and ferrochrome costs...

En glissement hebdomadaire, le fil machine s'est maintenu à 500 USD/t, la brame à 478 USD/t et le HRC à 515 USD/t FOB, tandis que la billette carrée a reculé à 468 USD/t (départ usine) contre 470 USD/t. Le HRC indonésien se situe autour de 533 USD/t CFR Surabaya et 532-535 USD/t CFR Vietnam, en hausse par rapport à 530-533 USD/t la semaine dernière. Les prix intérieurs sont restés globalement stables : le fil machine autour de 11 000 IDR/kg, les barres d'armature à 10 000-10 200 IDR/kg et le GI à 15 000-15 500 IDR/kg, tandis que le HRC s'est replié à 9 900-10 000 IDR/kg, les aciéries ayant réduit leurs prix pour conclure des affaires. La billette a baissé, les aciéries se rapprochant des objectifs des acheteurs, tandis que les vendeurs d'origine chinoise n'ont montré aucune intention de réduire davantage leurs prix. Au Vietnam, les offres en USD plus élevées de Formosa Ha Tinh (548-561 USD/t CIF) et de Hoa Phat (559-560 USD/t CIF) poussent les acheteurs vers les importations, bien que la livraison en février depuis l'Indonésie constitue un inconvénient par rapport à l'expédition de décembre-janvier de Formosa.