During the night session, SHFE tin prices remained in the doldrums, while trading in the spot market saw a slight recovery. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 31, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) remained in the doldrums during the night session, closing at 282,840 yuan/mt, down 0.65% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Foton Motor announced that its Q3 revenue reached 15.078 billion yuan, up 27.85% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm stood at 336 million yuan, up 1,764.21% YoY. For the first three quarters, revenue totaled 45.449 billion yuan, up 27.09% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.113 billion yuan, up 157.45% YoY. (2) Omdia released a report indicating that the global number of 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) users is expected to double by 2030. The study notes that, driven by major markets such as India and the US, FWA is demonstrating robust growth momentum and has become the fastest-growing broadband access technology. Omdia forecasts that global FWA users will increase from 71 million in 2024 to 150 million by 2030, with 5G FWA accounting for 88% of all FWA connections by then. The 5G FWA market is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23%, driving total FWA service revenue to reach $46 billion by 2030, with high-end 5G services capturing a larger market share. (3) Since September, memory chip prices have started to rise, with the uptrend accelerating in Q4. Downstream producers are rushing to stockpile, and some producers are operating at full capacity but still facing undersupply. The current sharp increase in memory chip prices results from the convergence of multiple factors in the global market. On one hand, to pursue higher profits, major global memory chip producers are shifting significant capacity toward high-end chips for artificial intelligence and data centers, leading to a sharp reduction in the supply of traditional memory chips. On the other hand, the memory chip industry is inherently cyclical; after a period of low prices, producers proactively cut production and destocked, accelerating the reversal of the supply-demand relationship and pushing prices into an upward cycle. A semiconductor company executive stated that spot market price increases for memory chips range from 60% to 80%, with some popular models seeing increases of up to 100%. Reporters learned that memory chips are widely used, demand continues to amplify, and there remains significant market potential ahead. Industry insiders believe that, considering multiple factors including current robust demand, supply shortages, and the upward industry cycle, the strong price trend for memory chips is expected to persist for some time.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major producing regions like Yunnan. Maintenance shutdowns at some smelters in October have largely concluded, and most smelters in Yunnan are operating relatively steadily. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream purchasing remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. The boost from emerging sectors was limited: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Transactions in the spot market saw a slight recovery. Tin prices were in the doldrums yesterday. Although most downstream and end-user enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude with low purchase willingness, some downstream enterprises still made small purchases. Most traders reported transactions of around 10 mt yesterday, while a few traders traded more than one truckload.

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