Copper to Hold Gains in 2026 as Mine Disruptions Fuel Deficit

[SMM Spot Copper Concentrates] It was reported that a major mine recently released tender information. Lots 1-4 and 6: 10,000 mt of clean ore each, with shipment in August-September. Lot 5: 10,000 mt of clean ore, with shipment in Q4. The tender closes at the end of this week.

The COMEX-LME copper price spread has continued to widen over the past two weeks, reaching approximately $400/t by late May and touching a recent high of $500/t. With the cross-market arbitrage window remaining open, traders have accelerated the cancellation of LME registered warrants and the transfer of material to the United States. LME copper inventory drawdowns have picked up pace, falling 3,375 tonnes on May 29th to 386,050 tonnes — a fresh 10-week low. Cancelled warrants currently account for 30.87% of total LME copper inventory, with more than half concentrated in US LME warehouses, reflecting clear intent to move metal. Meanwhile, COMEX copper inventories have continued to build to approximately 575,000 tonnes. According to SMM, CIF Shanghai COMEX registered bill-of-lading warrants